台风灾害综合等级评判模型改进及应用分析-气象.PDF

台风灾害综合等级评判模型改进及应用分析 王秀荣1 张立生2 李维邦3 1 中国气象局公共气象服务中心，北京，100081 2 国家气象中心，北京，100081 3 香港理工大学，香港，999077 摘要：本文首先对 2010 年王秀荣等人建立的台风灾害综合等级评判模型进行了改进， 主要基于以下三个方面：一是对倒损房屋数指标的转换函数进行重新定义，二是对直接 经济损失指标的去通货膨胀化；三是对原模型综合关联度指数分析中“死亡人数，直接 经济损失，倒损房屋数，农作物受淹面积”四个指标的权重系数优化；然后，运用改进 模型对2000 到2015 年登陆我国的历史台风灾害进行了综合等级评定与大小排序；同时， 将评定结果与原模型的评定结果进行了比对。通过应用与检验分析，证明了改进后模型 明显降低了通货膨胀对直接经济损失指数的影响，凸显了以人为本的防灾理念，较原模 型具有更好的等级识别度，评定灾情等级结果更符合实际灾情，具备较好的评判功能， 可以试用于气象服务等相关业务中快速对台风灾情进行综合等级或历史排序等评判。 关键词：台风灾害综合等级 评判模型 改进 应用分析 The improvement and application analysis of the comprehensive grade evaluation model of typhoon disaster 1 2 3 Wang Xiurong Zhang Lisheng Li Weibang 1 CMA Public Meteorological Service Center, Beijing, 100081 2.National Meteorological Center, Beijing, 100081 3.Hong Kong Polytech University,Hongkong,999077 Abstract ：In the first part of this paper, we discuss about an improvement of typhoon disaster comprehensive registration evaluation model established by Wang Xiurong and others in 2010. Based on three aspects as follow : first ，a function optimization of damaged buildings index; second, wipe off the influence of inflation on the direct economic loss index ; third, the weight coefficient optimization of four indicators includes the death toll of the original model, the direct economic losses, the number of damaged houses, the crops flooded area . In the second part of this paper, the improved model is used to evaluate the historical typhoon disasters in China from 2000 to 2015 and sort the all historical typhoon disasters from high to low by results. And the results are compared with the original model to evaluate the effect