中国资本外流的构成和规模.pdfVIP

2014 2015 2,210 2015 5,500 30%10%60% Sources and sizes of China’s capital outflows Movements in the renminbi and in China’s external accounts have been a source of intense market concern in the early weeks of 2016. In the wake of the small devaluation of the renminbi in August 2015, and more recently the weaker fixes in the first week of the new year, we have received a large volume of questions about capital outflows from China – how big they are, what the main sources of outflows, and how long they can continue. In this week’s Asia Economics Analyst we address some of these questions, although there remains considerable uncertainty on some points. An overview of China’s balance of payments One thing that is not in dispute is that the capital flow picture has shifted sharply over the past two years. Net capital flows (excluding reserve changes) were positive in most quarters after the global financial crisis through early 2014 (Exhibit 1). But starting in the second quarter of 2014, capital flows have been persistently and increasingly negative, with outflows at US$221bn (annualizing at an US$883bn) in Q3 2015, the latest quarter for which data are available.1 And this capital outflow was far from simply being a mirror image of China’s current accoun