变形监测数据预测方法比较研究.docVIP

本科学生毕业论文 变形监测数据预测方法比较研究 黑 龙 江 工 程 学 院 二○一二年六月 The Graduation Thesis for Bachelors Degree Comparisional study on data predicting methods in Deformation monitoring Heilongjiang Institute of Technology 2012-06·Harbin 摘 要 以变形监测数据为基础，借助各种数理统计方法建立预测模型，是变形预测分析的重要方法，在建筑工程的安全施工以及运营有着重要意义。用切实有效的方法进行变形数据分析和预报十分重要。常用的变形分析方法有回归分析法、时间序列法、灰色理论方法。本文从理论分析的角度出发，论述了常用变形分析方法的基本理论，同时，本文结合了有代表性的具体工程实例，从实际应用的角度分别对所列举的变形分析方法进行了计算分析，得到了相应的变形分析模型并进行了变形的预测，并且对不同的变形分析方法进行了比较验证，总结出了各种模型在具体使用中的优缺点和适用范围。由于变形分析模型计算的复杂性，作者借助Matlab对所运用的变形分析方法的计算进行了程序实现。本文从实践中得到了一些有益的结论，对以后建筑工程的变形分析以及预测具有一定的实用意义。最后，对于本文中存在的不足进行了简要的论述。 关键词：变形监测变形分析模型；时间序列法；回归分析法；灰色理论方法； 预测 ABSTRACT Based on the deformation monitoring data, With a variety of mathematical statistical methods to establish the prediction model, deformation prediction analysis is of great significance in the construction and operation of construction safety. Deformation data analysis and forecasting is very important.Deformation analysis commonly used methods regression analysis method, the method of time series, gray theory method. This article discusses the basic theory of the common methods of deformation analysis.And based on engineering examples，this article does calculations and analysis in the deformation analysis methods above from a practical application point of view,gets the relevant deformation analysis models and the forecasting value,and summarizes the relative merits and sphere of application of the models above in the concrete use.For the complexities in deformation model calculation,the author realizes the calculations of the deformation analysis methods by the programming language MATLAB．The article gets some useful conclusion from practice，which is practically significant to coming deformation analysis and prediction of building engineering．In the finally,the deficiencies in this article are briefly discussed． Key words: Deformation Monitoring;Deformation Analysis Model; Timeseries Method; Regressionanalysis Method; Grey Theory Me