电力专业英语12-load forecasting电力专业英语12-load forecasting.pptVIP

* Load Forecasting 电气工程学院 Load Forecasting Forecasting means estimating active load at various load buses ahead of actual load occurrence. A good forecast reflecting current and future trends, tempered with good judgment, is the key to all planning, indeed to financial success. The accuracy of a forecast is crucial to any electric utility, and a forecast of low accuracy can result in low revenue from sales to neighboring utilities or even in load curtailment. temper vt. 调节；使…适应 Lead time and application of Load Forecast Nature of forecast Lead time Application Very short term A few seconds to several minutes Generation, distribution schedules, contingency analysis for system security Short term Half an hour to a few hours Allocation of spinning reserve; operational planning and unit commitment; maintenance scheduling Medium term A few days to a few weeks Planning for seasonal peak – winter, summer Long term A few months to a few years Planning generation growth Approaches to Load Forecasting Choosing a forecasting technique for use in establishing future load requirements is a nontrivial task in itself. Depending on nature of load variations, one particular method may be superior to another. The two approaches to load forecasting namely total load approach and component approach have their own merits and demerits. Approaches to Load Forecasting Total load approach has the merit that is much smoother and indicative of overall gross trends and easy to apply. On the other hand, the merit of the component approach is that abnormal conditions in growth trends of a certain component can be detected, thus preventing misleading forecast conclusions. Factors considered The load is dependent on the industrial, commercial and agricultural activities as well as the weather condition of the area. The weather sensitive component depends on temperature, cloudiness, wind velocity, visibility and precipitation. A major part of the forecasting task is concerned with identifying