电力系统中长期负荷预测的大数据分析电力系统中长期负荷预测的大数据分析.pdfVIP

Smart Grid 智能电网, 2014, 4, 207-215 Published Online December 2014 in Hans. /journal/sg /10.12677/sg.2014.46030 Big Data Analysis of Mid-Long Term Load Forecasting in Power System Xiaoping Wang, Yang Li, Jun Yong, Hao Zhang, Bing He, Tao Zheng, Qianshan Cheng, Hualiang Fang Mianyang Power Supply Company, State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company, Mianyang Email: qianshan_ch@163.com st th th Received: Oct. 31 , 2014; revised: Nov. 19 , 2014; accepted: Nov. 26 , 2014 Copyright © 2014 by authors and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract A mid-long term load forecasting method based on big data theory is proposed because of the present complicated forecasting models and bad adaptability. The method focuses on the data and the load in large area is partitioned to different levels and classified to different types. Then the relationships among data are researched. Based on the characteristic of each partition and analy- sis of corresponding data, the load forecasting model is established, and thus the elaborate load forecasting is realized. In the end, the validity of the method is proved by practical example in power system. Keywords Mid-Long Term Load Forecasting, Big Data, Partition and Classification of Load, Elaborate Load Forecasting Model 电力系统中长期负荷预测的 大数据分析 王小平，李 阳，雍 军，张 浩，何 冰，郑 涛，程潜善，方华亮 国网四川省电力公司绵阳供电公司，绵阳 Email: qianshan_ch@163.com 收稿日期：2014年10月31 日；修回日期：2014年11月19 日；录用日期：2014年11月26 日 207 电力系统中长期负荷预测的大数据分析 摘 要 针对当前电力系统中长期预测模型复杂、适应性差等不足，提出基于大数据的中长期负荷预测方法。