国际油价波动对我国经济的影响及对策.docVIP

天津外国语学院滨海外事学院 经 济 系 本 科 生 毕 业 论 文 题目 浅析国际油价波动对我国经济的影响及对策 The Preliminary Analysis of The Impact and Countermeasures of Fluctuations in International Oil Prices on China’s Economy 作 者 罗 婕 学 号 070654011 专 业 国际经济与贸易 班 级 070401 指导教师 完成日期 2011年5月 中文摘要 石油作为重要的能源与基础性产品，是经济发展的“血液”，也是国际政治冲突的“筹码”，石油价格的每次大起大落都牵动世界的神经。随着我国经济的高速发展，工业化和城市化步伐不断加快，石油需求量迅速增加，石油供需矛盾日益突出。对于需要大量进口国际石油的我国来说，石油产量与消耗量之间的缺口越大，对外的依存度就越高。据有关国际组织统计分析，每桶石油价格上涨10美元/桶，就会使通货膨胀上升0.15%，使经济增长率降低0.125%，失业率增长0.101%。因而国际油价的剧烈波动已对我国经济构成了较大的风险和威胁。 本文从影响油价波动的基本面入手，多角度分析其他各种影响因素，侧重点在于投机炒作因素，说明了石油价格行为的复杂性。以数据为基础，阐述了国际油价的现状以及未来趋势，并详细分析油价波动对我国经济的影响。最后本文提出了应对国际油价波动的对策，即科学构建符合我国国情的石油战略储备；大力发展可再生能源；建立和完善石油期货市场；积极开拓国际石油市场，加强国际能源合作等。 关键词：石油；价格波动；影响；对策 ABSTRACT Oil, as the important energy and basic product, is the blood of economic development, but also the chip of international political conflict and the ups and downs of the price of oil affect the worlds nerves. Along with the rapid development of Chinas economy and acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, the oil demand increasing rapidly; the contradiction between supply and demand of oil becomes more and more serious. As for China, a country which need mass import, when the gap between oil production and consumption get larger, the greater we depend on foreign countries. According to relevant international organizations statistical analysis, when the price of a barrel of oil goes up $10, the inflation rising 0.15%, this makes the rate of economic growth reduces 0.125% and the unemployment grew 0.101%. Thus the sever fluctuation of international oil price has caused an ignorable risk and threat question to our countrys economy. This article studies the influences of the fundamentals of oil price, with multiple perspectives analysis of various other influencing factors, the key lies in speculating factors, and explains the complexity of