家户购屋与生育行为关系资源排挤与动机刺激.PDF

89 115 JOURNAL OF HOUSING STUDIES, VOLUME 24 NO. 1, JUNE 2015 The Relationship between House Buying and the Fertility Behavior of Households: Resource Exclusion and Motivated Stimulus * Pei-Syuan Lin* 摘　要 關鍵詞：高房價、資源排擠、動機刺激、存活分析 ABSTRACT The households’ relationship in terms of house buying and fertility behavior has received much attention due to the high housing prices and low birth rate in Taiwan. These two behaviors are households’ major expenses and there might be resource exclusion. However, previous studies have ignored that the contribution of these two behaviors regarding improving households’ stability may encourage them to have children or buy houses. Thus, this study has tried to investigate the relationship of these two behaviors from the dimensions of resource exclusion and motivated stimulus by constructing the survival models. The empirical data were retrieved from the Panel Study of Family Dynamics (PSFD) in Taiwan. The results show that the probability of first-time house buying increases with a gradual decrease after the household’s birth of the first child. On the other hand, the probability of fertility decreases gradually over time after the household’s first-time house buying. It indicates that the effects of resource exclusion and motivated stimulus change over time and there exist different effects in terms of the order of house buying and fertility behaviors. The force is also different when the events occur in a period of high prices. Key words: high housing price, resource exclusion, motivated stimulus, survival analysis (本文於2013年12月8 日收稿，2014年8月12日審查通過，實際出版日期2015年6月) * Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Land Economics, National Chengchi University, Taipei, Taiwan. E-mail:.tw 90