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a choice prediction competition for market entry games an introduction选择预测竞争市场进入游戏介绍
Games 2010, 1, 117-136; doi:10.3390/g1020117
OPEN ACCESS
games
ISSN 2073-4336
/journal/games
Article
A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games:
An Introduction
Ido Erev 1,*, Eyal Ert 2 and Alvin E. Roth 3,4
1 Max Wertheimer Minerva Center for Cognitive Studies, Faculty of Industrial Engineering and
Management, Technion, Haifa 32000, Israel
2 Computer Laboratory for Experimental Research, Harvard Business School, Boston, MA, 02163,
USA; E-Mail: eert@
3 Department of Economics, 308 Littauer, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA;
E-Mail: aroth@
4 Harvard Business School, 441 Baker Library, Boston, MA 02163, USA
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: erev@tx.technion.ac.il.
Received: 30 April 2010 / Accepted: 12 May 2010 / Published: 14 May 2010
Abstract: A choice prediction competition is organized that focuses on decisions from
experience in market entry games (/site/gpredcomp/ and
/si/games/predict-behavior/). The competition is based on two
experiments: An estimation experiment, and a competition experiment. The two
experiments use the same methods and subject pool, and examine games randomly selected
from the same distribution. The current introductory paper presents the results of the
estimation experiment, and clarifies the descriptive value of several baseline models. The
experimental results reveal the robustness of eight behavioral tendencies
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