高致病性禽流感发生风险评价框架的建立-矿业科学学报.DOC

高致病性禽流感发生风险评估框架的建立 李 静1，2，王靖飞1，吴春艳1，杨彦涛1，吉增涛1，王洪斌2 (1 中国农业科学院哈尔滨兽医研究所动物疫病诊断与流行病学研究中心，哈尔滨 150001；2 东北农业大学动物医学院，哈尔滨150030) 摘要：【目的】为实现对高致病性禽流感发生的风险评估，以在该病的控制中为制定科学有效的控制策略提供理论依据。【方法】通过对已发生的高致病性禽流感相关数据的统计分析，结合头脑风暴法，确定了高致病性禽流感发生的风险因素；利用层次分析法确定各风险因素的权重；应用多指标综合评价法计算评估结果。【结果】建立了由评估指标体系评价标准指标权重综合评分评；多指标综合评价法ramework for Analysis of the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza LI Jing1, 2, WANG Jing-fei1, WU Chun-yan1, YANG Yan-tao1, JI Zeng-tao1, WANG Hong-bin2 (1Center for Diagnosis and Epidemiology of Animal Infectious Diseases, Harbin Veterinary Research Institute ,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Harbin 150001;2College of Animal Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030) Abstract: 【Objective】The purpose of this paper is to establish a risk assessment framework that can evaluate the highly pathogenic avian influenza risks in China. 【Method】A risk assessment framework was built. In the process, the risk factors were confirmed by analyzing the epidemic data. An analytic hierarchy process was designed to weigh risk factors, and an integrated assessment method was applied to evaluate the results of the risk. 【Result】 The completed framework includes the risk factor system, data standards for risk factors, measures of risk factors and integrated assessment methods.【Conclusion】Use of this risk assessment framework performs a quantitative analysis of the highly pathogenic avian influenza risks in China Key words: Highly pathogenic avian influenza; Risk factor; Risk assessment framework; Analytic hierarchy process (AHP); Weights; Integrated assessment 0 引言 【本研究的重要意义】2003年底至今，高致病性禽流感在不同国家和地区频繁暴发，呈全球性传播趋势，其防控形势非常严峻。家禽饲养数量和密度、人员和物品流动、候鸟迁徙和气候等环境风险因素可影响高致病性禽流感疫情的发生与扩散。将环境、生态、社会和文化等方面的各种相关因素综合，进行高致病性禽流感风险评估，以确定疫情发生的风险程度，根据评估结果，可减少防控工作的被动性与盲目性，有针对性地采取预防措施，合理安排人员与资金，有效利用资源，节约成本，提高社会效益。【前人研究进展】在动物医学领域中，如口蹄疫、蓝舌病[1]、牛海绵状脑病[2]等流行病的监测中都运用风险分析方法。风险评估是以科学为基础，对具有不确定性的事件或结果进行逻辑判断的一种过程，是将专家经验知识和现代数学方法相结合，建立风险评估指标体系，确定指标值和权重，建立综合评价模型，最后用合适的阈值来确定风险程度或根据风险因素的权重采取相应防控措施。针