Wednesday, December 29, 2010 2010年12月29日 周三 Grains .DOCVIP

Wednesday, December 29, 2010 2010年12月29日 周三 Grains closed mixed to lower. Some yearend profit taking offered resistance. Interesting to note that many commodity chart show the potential completion of a wave up. This includes. soybeans, sugar, copper, crude, cotton and corn. SH closed down 10 cents and near 13.77. CH closed up 1 cents and near 6.24. WH closed up 1 cent and near 7.99. 译文：谷物期货收低。 有年末获利盘为锁定利润平仓对期价形成了压力。 非常有趣的注意到有多种商品期价图表上显示悄悄地完成了上涨。 这些商品品种包括大豆，白糖，电解铜，原油，棉花和玉米。1月大豆期价下跌10美分，接近1377美分/蒲。3月玉米期价上涨1美分，接近624美分/蒲。3月小麦上涨1美分，收于799美分/蒲。 SOYBEANS… Soybeans closed lower. SH closed down 10 cents and near 13.77. Talk that eventually US interest rates may need to go higher may have triggered some commodity profit taking. The drop in Commodity prices were despite a sharp drop in the dollar. Farmer Selling increased on Tuesday when futures made new high for the move. This offered resistance to cash basis levels. Guesses for Thursday US soybean export sales is near 900-1300 mt vs 828 last week. A few analyst are beginning to question if China will take The 57.0 mmt of imports USDA is currently est. This due to drop in domestic crush margins. This could offer resistance to prices. Trade also concerned about Index funds rebalancing of positions during the first week in Jan. Some est that Index funds will Liquidate 7,500 soybean and 10,800 soyoil contracts and buy nat gas. Following is a chart of the history of the Index fund Position in soybeans. Trade still feels key to Jan-Feb soybean price action will be South America weather, China soybean Demand and USDA Jan 12 est of US Dec 1 stocks. 译文：大豆方面，大豆期价收低。3月期价下跌10美分，收于1377美分/蒲。有传言说最终美国利率有可能提高引发了商品期货获利平仓。尽管美元指数急剧下跌，但是商品期价还是下跌。当期货市场上涨时，农户销售在周三有增长。这对出口现货基差带来了压力。有猜想周四发布的美国大豆出口销售数据接近9万吨到13万吨，上周为8.28万吨。有些分析数据开始质疑中国是否如USDA预计的那样进口57万吨大豆。这可能是由于中国国内压榨利润的下跌。这对期价带来了压力。市场方面也关注着指数基金在新年后第一周内如何重新调整头寸。有预计指数基金将会获利平仓7500手大豆，10800手豆油合约，转而买入天然气。下图是指数基金在大豆期货合约上的头寸历史图表。市场依旧感觉1月到2月影响期价的关键因素是南美洲的天气，中国大豆需求和美国1月12日预计的美国12月1日库存量。 US Soyb