The dynamics of viral marketing：（病毒式营销的动力）.pdfVIP

5 0 0 2 p e S 5 The Dynamics of Viral Marketing ] h p - c o s. Jurij Leskovec1,3 s c Lada A. Adamic2 i s y Bernardo A. Huberman2 h p [ 1 1 Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 v 9 3 jure@ 0 9 2 HP Labs, Palo Alto, CA 94304 0 5 {lada.adamic,bernardo.huberman}@ 0 / s c i s y h p : v i X r a 3The research was done while at HP Labs. 1 The Dynamics of Viral Marketing Abstract We present an analysis of a person-to-person recommendation network, consisting of 4 million people who made 16 million recommendations on half a million products. We observed the propagation of rec- ommendations and the cascade sizes, which can be explained by a stochastic model. We then established how the recommendation network grows over time and how effective it is from the viewpoint of the sender and receiver of the recommendations. While on average recommendations are not very effective at inducing purchases and do not spread very far, there are product and pricing categories for which viral marketing seems to be very effective. 2 1 Introduction With consumers showing increasing resistance to traditional forms of advertising such as TV or newspaper ads, marketers have turned to alternate strategies, including viral marketing. Viral marketing exploits exist- ing social networks by encouraging customers to share product information with their fri