林毅夫中国经济专题十讲 - 第二讲：李约瑟之谜.doc

第二讲：李约瑟之谜和中国经济由盛而衰的原因 一. 中国在前现代社会的成就 . Angus Maddison. 1995. Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1992. 一直到19世纪中叶，中国是全世界最大的经济 技术：在工业革命以前的1000多年的时间里中国是世界上科技最先进的国家。(Francis Bacon认为使欧洲从黑暗的中世纪转变为现代世纪的发明是纸张、印刷术、火药和指南针，但是他不知道这些都是中国发明的)（Francis Bacon (1561-1626) The most influential and versatile English writer of the 17th century, Francis Bacon wrote on a broad range of topics, including ethics, philosophy, science, law, history, and politics. Bacon helped usher in the era of modern scientific thought by developing a reasoning process called induction. Induction is the process by which general conclusions are drawn from particular situations.） 中国是世界上最工业化的国家，在11世纪时年产15万顿铁，其产量为欧洲的6倍。 社会经济制度: 土地私有，高度的社会分工，劳动力自由流动，高效运行的要素市场和产品市场 《史记。货殖列传》范蠡（陶朱公） “六岁穰，六岁旱，十二岁一大饥”，“论其有余不足，则知贵贱，贵上极则反贱，贱下极则反贵。贵出如粪土，贱取如珠玉” 贵出如粪土，贱取如珠玉－－投机的原则 论其有余不足，则知贵贱――价格由市场的供给和需求决定 贵上极则反贱，贱下极则反贵――生产者按市场的价格来决定生产 在前现代社会中国是最富有、最城市化的国家. 公元0年, 中国的汉朝和欧洲的罗马帝国处于同一发展水平 公元1000年, 中国远远领先于西方. 清明上河图 望海潮 柳永 东南形胜，三吴都会，钱塘自古繁华。烟柳画桥，风帘翠幕，参差十万人家。云树绕堤沙，怒涛卷霜雪，天堑无涯。市列珠玑，户盈罗绮，竞豪奢。 重湖叠巘清嘉，有三秋桂子，十里荷花。羌管弄晴，菱歌泛夜，嬉嬉钓叟莲娃。千骑拥高牙，乘醉听箫鼓，吟赏烟霞。异日图将好景，归去凤池夸. Marco Polos description about Su-chou and Hang-chou, p. 270.（威尼斯人，1254-1324） “Su-chou is so large that it measures about forty miles in circumference. It has so many inhabitants that one could not reckon their number. and Hang-chou without doubt the finest and most splendid city in the world, ... anyone seeing such a multitude would believe it a stark impossibility that food could be found to fill so many mouths.” the West in the Dark Ages was essentially agrarian and, in comparison with China, was poorer and under-developed. (Carlo M. Cipolla, Beofre the Industrial Revolution European Society and Economy, 1000-1700, New York and London: W.W. Norton Company p. 171). As late as 1776, Adam Smith described “China has been long one of the richest, that is, one of the most fertile, best cultivated, most industrious, and most populous countries in the world.” (p. 71) and “China is a much ri