什么是希冀值法(国外英文资料).docVIP

什么是期望值法(国外英文资料) What is the expected method edit the directory Expected value method is by calculating the project net present value of expected value and the net present value is greater than or equal to zero, the cumulative probability to compare advantages and disadvantages, determine the feasibility and the degree of risk. The steps of the expected method edit the section to the directory Using the expected method to perform probabilistic analysis, the following steps are usually followed: Choose the net present value as the analysis object, and analyze the major uncertainties related to the choice. In accordance with the principle of mutual exclusion of the poor, determine the state or scope of change that the uncertainty may occur. Estimate the probability of each occurrence in each case. The probability of each of these uncertainties in each case must be less than or equal to one, greater than or equal to zero, and the sum of the probabilities of all possible events must be equal to l. The probability of subjective probability, here is based on fully grasp the relevant information, by the experts and scholars on the basis of their own knowledge, experience after system analysis, subjective judgement. Calculate the net present value (NPV) of each possible occurrence. The expected value of the net present value of each year, the expected value of the net present value of the entire project life cycle, and the calculation formula for the expected value of the net present value of each year are: In the form, E (NPVt) is the expected value of the net present value of year t; The net present value of the ith case in the ith year of t; Pit is the probability of occurrence of the ith case in year t, the number of states or variations that occur. The formula for calculating the expected value of the net present value of the entire project is: In the formula, E (NPV) is the expected value of the net present value of the entire project life cycle; I as the depreciation