江苏省对外贸易中的碳排放转移效应研究.pdfVIP

尊卑锯晴管 41 2012年06 月 Jun. ,2012 (第 26 卷第06期) East China Economic Management (VoI.26 ,No.06) 一一一-一二一【 ·江浙经济 DOI]1 0.3969/j .ìssn.1 007-5097 .2012.06.003 江苏省对外贸易中的碳排放转移效应研究 何凌云，林祥燕 (中国矿业大学管理学院，江苏徐州 221116) [摘要]理论上讲，贸易中的孩排放转移效应既包括直接能耗效应，又涵盖通过产业总量、结构、技术产生的间接调 节效应。通过构建贸易与碳排放的长期关系、产业调节效应及状态空间模型，借助VAR、崎回归等方法研究发现: 江苏省对外贸易的直接能耗效应显著，应成为争取国际破排放配.额的论据;而通过产业总量、结构和技术对破排放产 生有效的正向、负向和反向调节，JI.向效力的强度大于负向。因此，贸易发展的同时要实现破排放控制目标，常充分 发掘产业结构和技术渠道的减排作用。 [关键词]对外贸易:产业发展;碳转移;岭回归 [中图分类号] F06 1.5 [文献标志码] A [文章编号] 1 ∞7-5ω7 (2012) 侃一删9--05 Study 00 the Transfer EfT时l ts of Carboo Emissions Embodied in International Trade in Jiaogsu Pro世nce HE Ling-yun , UN Xiang-yan (/wQlofManagemeru , Chîna UniversîtyofMìnîng Techrwlogy, Xuzhou 221116 , Chìna) Abstract: In theo巧，由e transfer effect of carbon emissions embodied in intemational tra巾， includes two kinds of effect. One is direct effects of ene咆y consumption , the other is indirect moderating effects of industry 略目~gate， structur哩， and technolo同 切. By constructing trade and carbon emission 8 long term relationship , moderating effect and 阳le space models , with the methods such ωVAR and the ridge re伊咽síon ， the paper found that íntemational trade s direct effects of energy consumption is significant in Jiangsu province , which can be used ωevidence of obtaining more carbon emission. The intemational trade had positive , negative and negative adjusting effects on carbon emission respectively by industry aggr吨ate ， structure and tech- nology. and the intensity of the former is bi阻:er 由皿由eo由ers. The陀fo陀， it should control the carbon emissio