美国赤字政策演化路径及债务货币化风.pdfVIP

公共经济学领域 美国赤字政策演化路径及债务货币化风险研究 ——基于奥巴马新政背景的分析 内容摘要 美国应对当前金融危机的赤字财政政策迅速推升赤字规模及债务 负担，由此引起的财政政策可持续性及美元货币稳定性问题受到世界各国的广泛 关注。本文通过建立分析美国财政政策问题的理论框架，透视当前美国赤字财政 政策，同时运用情景模拟多角度分析未来政策演化路径及债务货币化问题。研究 表明，奥巴马新政的赤字财政政策与稳态财政路径相差甚远，美国财政政策已背 离稳态水平。进一步财政动态演化路径显示，债务货币化是美国超常规赤字政策 的必然选择，由此内生增加美联储未来通货膨胀调控压力，在美国经济复苏偏离 预期的情形下，债务货币化将导致基础货币在未来八年中增加三倍左右，恶性通 货膨胀甚至经济系统性风险很大。对此，我们应高度关注并及时调整相关政策。 关 键 词 赤字政策；债务负担；债务货币化 中图分类号 F813.3 F813.6 Dynamic Evolution Pathof the Deficit Policyand Debt Monetization in United State ——Analysis Based on the Obama New Deal Abstract：In order to defend the financial crisis，American government resorted to deficit policy which greatly pushing up the debt burden and deficit level of U.S.. The problem about the sustainability of fiscal policy and the stabilization of dollar money were concerned by the people all over the world. So this paper wanted to analyze the dynamic evolution path of the deficit policy and debt monetization in a new theoretical analytical framework about the problem of the American fiscal policy.And we found some meaningful result. Firstly, the deficit policy based on Obama new deal has deviated from the steady-state level. Secondly, debt monetization was the inevitable choice that U.S. should take responding to the financial crisis. And this policy would add pressure to the federal reserve bank on the problem about the inflation-control. We also found that if the economic did not recover as expected, debt monetization would lead to the high inflation or causing the economic system risk. So we should highly focus on it and adjust the related policy. Key Words:Deficit Policy；Debt Burden；Debt Monetization 1 一、引言 克林顿总统在 1999 年 10 月的总统预算咨文中对任内缩减国债的功劳表示十分自豪， 并且预计在 2013 年将完全摆脱债务(朱自刚，2001)。这种豪情壮志曾经令美国人充满期待， 然而，国债在政府资产负债表上并没有逐步消亡的迹象，反而迅速膨胀。次贷危机爆发前，