油气管道可接受风险准则研究.PDFVIP

2016 年 1 月　第 35 卷 第 1 期 前瞻与综述 文章编号：1000-8241（2016）01-0001-06 油气管道可接受风险准则研究 赵新伟　张华　罗金恒 中国石油集团石油管工程技术研究院 CNPC 石油管工程重点实验室 摘要：风险评估是管道完整性管理的基础和核心技术，而风险可接受判据是风险评估中必须解决的 关键技术问题。按照风险的最低合理可行（ALARP）原则，结合中国油气管道实际，基于历史事故 数据统计分析，提出了中国油气管道风险可接受准则。推荐个体风险可接受的临界值为 10-6，可容 忍的临界值为 10-4；给出了社会风险可接受判据的 F-N 曲线模型，即死亡人数（N）和超越概率（F） 关系曲线。建议加强油气管道失效信息数据库建设，做好历史失效事故数据的积累和统计，对管道 风险评估具有重要意义。（ 图 4，表 4，参 10） 关键词：油气管道；风险评估；风险可接受判据；个体风险；社会风险 中图分类号：TE88　　　 文献标识码：A　　　　 doi： 10.6047/j.issn.1000-8241.2016.01.001 Risk acceptance criteria for oil and gas pipelines ZHAO Xinwei, ZHANG Hua, LUO Jinheng Petroleum Tubular Engineering Key Laboratory of CNPC, Tubular Goods Research Center of CNPC Abstract: Risk assessment is the basis and core technology for pipeline integrity management, and the risk acceptance criteria is the critical technical issue in risk assessment. According to the principle of “As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP)”, the risk acceptance criteria for oil and gas pipelines in China were proposed through statistic analysis on the historical accident data. The acceptable critical value and tolerable critical value of individual risk were recommended to be 10－6 and 10－4 respectively. The FN curve model for social risk acceptance criteria (i.e., the relation function between the death number N and the exceeding probability F) was provided. It is suggested to strengthen the establishment of pipeline failure database, since the collection and statistical analysis of historical failure accidents data are si