单独两孩政策实施中堆积夫妇及其生育释放分析_姚引妹.pdfVIP

第 38 卷 第 4 期 2014 年 7 月 人口研究 Vol. 38， No. 4 July 2014 3 Population Ｒesearch 单独两孩政策实施中堆积夫妇 及其生育释放分析* 姚引妹 李 芬 尹文耀 【内容摘要】文章阐述了生育政策转换过程中堆积夫妇和生育释放模式及剥离的基本概念、原 理、模型，对堆积夫妇规模、年龄构成及其生育释放量进行了测算。结果发现:第一，政策实施当年全 国“堆积夫妇”规模约 2612 万对，到 2040 年堆积现象基本消除。第二，堆积夫妇占育龄夫妇的比重先 升后降，峰值为 7. 9% 左右。第三，35 岁及以下堆积夫妇比重占 70. 5% ，生育释放的能力较强。第四， 堆积夫妇及释放生育以城镇、东部地区较多，江苏、山东等 10 省区是重点。第五，政策实施最初 5 年 累计释放的生育量占总量的 30% ～ 37% 左右。通过宣传引导、分类指导、合理疏导，做好政策调整最 初 5 ～ 10 年的工作，即可实现生育政策的平稳过渡。 【关键词】单独两孩政策;堆积夫妇;堆积释放生育;预期生育率;预期生育概率 【作者简介】姚引妹，浙江大学中国西部发展研究院人口与发展研究所副研究员;李芬，浙江大学 中国西部发展研究院人口与发展研究所讲师;尹文耀浙江大学中国西部发展研究院人口与发展研究 所研究员。浙江杭州:310058 Accumulated Couples and Fertility Ｒelease under the New Fertility Policy Yao Yinmei Li Fen Yin Wenyao Abstract: We elaborate on the theoretical principle of estimating the size of accumulated couples un- der the new birth policy，involving four fertility release patterns and calculation procedures. Using these methods，we have estimated the scale of the accumulated couples and the numbers of new born second children. First，the number of accumulated couples would be at around 26. 12 million in 2014 and vanish by 2040. Second，the proportion of accumulated couples to the couples of reproductive age would in- crease then decrease，and the peak proported would stand at around 7. 9% . Third，the age structure of the accumulated women would be heavily at age 35 and below who have strong reproductive capacity. Fourth，the spatial distribution of fertility release would be uneven，with the urban area and the Eastern re- gion having more accumulated couples and fertility release，and the provinces including Jianasu and Shangdong are the key provinces. Fifth，the number of fertility release would account for 30% -37% of the total accu