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Aus Economic.pdf

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Aus Economic

Australia Highlights and Key Issues GDP rebounded in Q2, rising 1.2% on the quarter and wiping out the natural disaster- related losses of Q1. Household spending rose by a healthy 1% and private investment and stockbuilding were also positive factors. Government spending rose by 0.9%. Evidence for Q3 from retail sales and services activity suggests a further quarter of expansion, and investment spending should remain solid thanks to the boom in the mining sector. But some soft patches remain. The August employment report saw a drop in jobs and a rise in unemployment to 5.3%. The housing sector also remains subdued and manufacturing continues to struggle under the pressure of a strong exchange rate. Some survey indicators weakened notably in August and September, partly due to deteriorating global conditions. We forecast GDP growth at a subdued 1.6% this year, but picking up to 3.4% in 2012 as the resources boom has increasingly positive spillovers into other sectors. The expansionary impact of the resources boom poses a potential inflation risk, but the danger of early RBA rate hikes has subsided in recent weeks given the patchy domestic data and the deteriorating conditions in the global economy and financial markets. We see no rate rises until mid-2012 at the earliest. Country Economic Forecast: 27 September 2011 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Domestic Demand 4.2 3.6 3.3 4.4 4.2 3.4 Private Consumption 2.8 3.0 2.7 4.4 3.8 3.3 Fixed Investment 5.8 4.9 5.8 5.7 5.0 4.5 Stockbuilding (% of GDP) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 Government Consumption 3.6 3.0 1.5 1.9 2.3 3.3 Exports of Goods and Services 5.7 -0.4 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.2 Imports of Goods and Services 13.7 8.6 4.8 6.1 6.2 5.6 GDP 2.7 1.6 3.4 4.1 4.0 3.3 Industrial Production 4.5 -2.7 2.3 3.6 2.9 2.3 Consumer Prices 2.8 3.3 2.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 Current Balance (% of GDP) -2.7 -1.5 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.9 Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.3 -2.7 -1.1 -0.7 -0.4 0.1 Short-Term Interest