第七讲赤字融资讲义.ppt

* * * Lerner – generation is everyone alive at same time Alternative – generation is everyone born at the same time Each generation has equal number of people Each lives 20 years Each has fixed income of $12,000/year Internal debt creates burden for future generations * OG model ? using generational accounting to evaluate impact of Government fiscal policies * * * Clicking on “Efficiency Considerations” goes to custom show showing PV of spending and taxing under alternative taxing/borrowing decisions Clicking on “χ = ?εLt2” goes to custom show of graph of relationship between tax rate and excess burden * Table shows 3 ways to finance an extra 100 in spending in year 1. Balanced budget – finance spending by raising 100 in taxes in year 1. PV of tax payments is 100 Deficit Finance I – finance by borrowing the 100 in year 1 and paying it back plus interest in year 2. In year 2 110 must be raised in taxes. PV of 110 in one year at 10% interest rate is 100 Deficit Finance II – finance by borrowing 100 in year 1 and never paying back the debt. In all subsequent years the interest on the debt must be paid so taxes must be raised 10 each year to do that. PV of 10 per year until the end of time is 100. * Axes and labels 1st click – curved solid line and dashed lines Click returns to “To tax or borrow” slide 20-* McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright ? 2008 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 第七讲  赤字融资 赤字规模有多大? 赤字 盈余 预算内赤字 预算外赤字 债务规模有多大? 国家（公共）债务 存量和流量 债务规模有多大? 希腊债务规模 ２０１０年１１月１５日，欧盟统计局公布必威体育精装版数据，将２００９年希腊财政赤字占国内生产总值的比重为１５．４％。希腊债务占国内生产总值的１２６．８％。 希腊财政部表示，现在是重塑希腊民众、国际市场以及投资伙伴信心的时候。未来几年，希腊政府将不再通过削减工资和养老金以及增加税收、私有化等方式来削减财政赤字。” （新华网2011-11-8） Total (gross) government debt around the world as a percent of GDP by IMF 中国国债规模 5.9万亿 33.5万亿 外债：0.4万亿美元 我国地方政府债务规模 对赤字、盈余和债务数字的解释 联邦储备银行持有的政府债务 州和地方政府债务 隐性债务 通货膨胀的影响 通货膨胀税 资本账户和经常账户 有形资产 总结 据估算，我国2010隐性公共养老金债务总额为33.4万亿元，占当年GDP比重为101.8%（李莉，2009） 从2007年“老人”、“中人”隐性债务规模与当年GDP总值的对比中可以看出, “老人”的隐性债务