internationaloriginsofthefinancialcrisis金融危机的国际起.pptVIP

International Origins of the Financial Crisis 金融危机的国际起因 Philip H. DybvigWashington University in Saint Louis 圣路易斯 华盛顿大学 成都 Chengdu 中国金融年会 Chinese Finance Association 2009年10月31日October 31, 2009 I would like to express my thanks to SWUFE and especially to Liu Jun, who is of course a famous scholar in the United States and a famous Sea Turtle who is one of the very top financial scholars in China. 非常感谢西南财经大学，特别是美国知名学者、走在中国金融前沿的著名海归刘俊先生。 Overview 概述 plenty of blame to go around but 这场金融危机可以归咎于众多的祸因 many aspects of the crisis flow from a single cause 但其实危机许多方面都来自一个简单的起因 regulatory failure from Basle I and II is the main culprit 巴塞尔协议I 和II 的监管失败是主要的起因 loss of Glass-Steagall didnt help 格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案的废止也是原因之一 I am happy people are paying more attention to liquidity, and 值得高兴的是人们越来越关注流动性问题 liquidity is important for understanding the depth and duration of the crisis, but 流动性对于理解危机的深度和持续性很重要 liquidity is not the topic of this talk 但流动性问题并非是我演讲的主题  Why Deposit Insurance 为什么需要存款保险 Diamond-Dybvig (1983) When banks hold illiquid assets they add value over competitive markets by improving risk sharing 当银行持有非流动性资产时，通过改善风险分担增加了价值 Illiquidity of assets can make banks subject to failure due to rational runs by depositors even if bank assets are riskless 即使银行持有的资产都是无风险的，非流动性资产也可以使银行在面临存款人理性挤兑的时候破产 Deposit insurance can eliminate bank run 存款保险可以使银行消除挤兑 Deposit Insurance: good and bad 存款保险：优点与缺陷 (good) protects consumers and reduces the need for their monitoring （优点）保护了消费者，减少了他们的监督需要 (good) prevents runs （优点）防止挤提 Deposit Insurance: good and bad (bad) transfers to govt the downside risk taken on by bondholders in other firms （缺陷）将企业债券持有人的风险转移给了政府 (bad) makes bank problems a problem for the government and therefore the whole economy ?（缺陷）使银行问题成了政府问题，甚至整个经济的问题 Why regulation?为什么需要监管 usual incentive problem of debt: bank owners want to take on too much risk because they collect upside gains but do not bear downside risk 通常的债务激励问题：银行所有者愿意承担过多的风险，因为他们可以享受收益，却不