Do We Really Know that the WTO increases Trade我们是否真的知道世贸组织增加了贸易.pptVIP

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Do We Really Know that the WTO increases Trade我们是否真的知道世贸组织增加了贸易.ppt

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Do We Really Know that the WTO increases Trade? Andrew K. Rose NBER and CEPR Question What is the effect of the multilateral system on international trade? ? Answer GATT and WTO have negligible effect GSP has a large positive effect (doubles trade) The Line Answer to title question is negative: We don’t really know the WTO increases (or the GATT increased) trade! Technical Summary Use ordinary bilateral “gravity” model of trade Also use aggregate data with same results Large panel data set: annual data 1948-1999 for 178 “countries” Find effects of GATT/WTO membership in one/both countries are economically small, often negative, statistically insignificant GSP does affect trade, so methodology/data not to blame Robust results Motivation Many believe that trade is enhanced by multilateral system Part of reason why trade has grown faster than income? WTO’s objective: “Its main function is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly, predictably and freely as possible.” WTO quotations: “… The achievements of the system are well worth celebrating. Since the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade began operating from Geneva in 1948, world merchandise trade has increased 16 fold … world trade now grows roughly three times faster than merchandise output … this advance ranks among the great international economic achievements of the post-world war era …” ? “The past 50 years have seen an exceptional growth in world trade. Merchandise exports grew on average by 6% annually. Total trade in 2000 was 22-times the level of 1950. GATT and the WTO have helped to create a strong and prosperous trading system contributing to unprecedented growth.” Literature Gravity Model ? ln(Xijt) = ?0 + ?1lnDij + ?2ln(YiYj)t + ?3ln(YiYj/PopiPopj)t + ?4Langij + ?5Contij + ?6Landlij + ?7Islandij +?8ln(AreaiAreaj) + ?9ComColij + ?10CurColijt + ?11Colonyij + ?12ComNatij + ?13CUijt + ?14FTAijt, + ?t?tTt + ?1Bothinijt + ?2Oneinijt + ?3GSPijt + ?ijt where i and j denotes trading partne