区域河川径流量时空变异特征及成因分析_以广东省为例.pdfVIP

J. L ake Sc.i (湖泊科学), 2011, 23 ( 1): 104111 http: //www. jlakes. org. Em ail: jlakes@ niglas. ac. cn 2011 by J ournal of L ake Sc iences 1, 2 1, 2 1, 2 涂新军 , 陈晓宏 , 张 强 ( 1: , 510275) ( 2: , 510275) : , 1956- 1999 , , , , . : , , , . 1973 1980 - 1981, , ; 1981, , 1982 . , , 1972- 1973 , . , , 1980- 1981 1992- 1993 , . : ; ; ; ; Spa tia ltempo ra l variab ility pa tterns o f reg iona l runo ffs series and the ir roo t cause ana ly s is, G uangdong P rov ince 1, 2 1, 2 1, 2 TU X injun , CHEN X iaohong ZHANG Q iang ( 1: Center o fWa ter Resources and Environm ent Research, Sun Yatsen University, G uangzhou 510275, P.R.China ) ( 2: Key Laboratory ofWa ter Cycle andW ater Security in Southern China of Guangdong H igh Educa tion Institute, G uangzhou 510275, P. R.China ) Abstrac t: Based on the changepo int theory andm ethods, the likelihood ratiom ethod testing in them ean and the Schw arz Informa tion Criterion testing in the variance, change po ints of tmi e series of the river runoff such as the full year runoff, the flood season runof,f the dry season runoff, and the leastm onthly runoff w ere recognized for m ain gauge stations of Guangdong Prov ince from 1956 to 1999. Spatialtempora l location of these tested change pointsw ere described in detai,l key features of the characteristics variability of tmi e series of the river runoffw ere concluded on the w hole, and furtherm ore root causesw ere illum inated for those change points of runoff tmi e series in term s of the m ean and the variance. In general, it show ed that change pointw asw idely tested in the existence of the dry season runoff and of the leastm onthly runoff, w hich the annual value increased significantly and fluctua ted rem arkably after the changepo int tmi e, otherw ise of the full year runoff and of the flood season runoff. Furtherm ore, the changepo in