抗震设防烈度的决策分析方法研究_马玉宏.pdfVIP

23 1 Vol. 23, No. 1 2007 3 W ORLD EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING M ar. , 2007 : 1007- 6069( 2007) 01- 0086-0 1 2, 3 4 马玉宏 谢礼立 赵桂峰 ( 1. , 1040 ; 2. , 1 0080; 3. , 1 0001; 4. , 1040 ) : , / 0/ 0 , , , , : ; ; ; ; ; : P31 . 9 : A R esearch on decision analysis m ethod of seism ic fortification in ten sity 1 2, 3 4 M a Yu-hong X ie L-i li Zhao Gu-i feng ( 1. E arthquake Eng ineering Research T est Center, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 1040 , China; 2. Institute ofEngineering M echanics, China E arthquake Adm inistration, H arbin 1 0080, China; 3. H arbin Institute ofT echnology, H arbin 1 0001, China; 4. School ofC ivil Engineering, GuangzhouUniversity, Guangzhou 1040 , China) Abs tract: In th is paper, the decision analysis method of seism ic design intensity is stud ied. Two decision analysis methods of optmi al econom ic design intensity and optmi al safe design intensity are put forw ard. And the conception of social acceptable earthquake mortality is brought forw ard. By analyzing, it is obvious that human earthquake mortality is very mi portant for determ in ing the optmi al design intensity, and only considering econom ic influence is not sufficient. K ey w ord s: decision analysis; fortification intensity; acceptable level of earthquake human mortality; optmi al eco- nom ic design intensity; optmi al safe design intensity; exceeding probab ility 1 ( GB 0011- 2001) 1. 0. , , 0 10% , 0 63%/ 0, 02~ 3% / 0, , , , ,