一种中长期日负荷曲线预测的新方法双向夹逼法.pdfVIP

第28 卷 第7 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 28 No. 7 2004 年4 月 Power System Technology Apr. 2004 文章编号：1000-3673 （2004 ）07-0027-03 中图分类号：TM734 文献标识码：A 一种中长期日负荷曲线预测的新方法—双向夹逼法 何光宇，郭家春，鲍 毅，陈雪青，周双喜 （清华大学电机工程系，北京 100084 ） A NOVEL METHOD OF MIDDLE AND LONG TERM FORECASTING FOR DAILY LOAD CURVE—APPROACHING ALGORITHM IN TWO DIRECTIONS HE Guang-yu ，GUO Jia-chun ，BAO Yi ，CHEN Xue-qing ，ZHOU Shuang-xi （Electrical Engineering Department ，Tsinghua University ，Beijing 100084 ，China ） ABSTRACT: A new method of middle and long term 交易中分配电量、审核调峰能力及分析互联系统 forecasting for daily load pattern, i.e., the approaching 错峰效益的基础。过去对中长期典型持续或时序 algorithm in two directions, is presented which is applicable in 负荷曲线的预测方法研究较少[1,2] 。除了采用人工 the middle and long term power system planning and electricity 的按比例增长的方法外，较精确的预测方法有两 market operation. Based on the principle of analogy and the idea of approaching predicted daily load curve in two 种，一种是将各类用电负荷的典型负荷曲线进行 directions, the forecasting problem is transformed into a linear 加权累加的方法，即将预测系统范围内的用电负 programming problem, thus it can be solved easily. This 荷分类后，分别选择典型负荷曲线，分类进行预 method has been put into use in the middle and long term 测，再将分类预测曲线按一定的规则叠加后得到 operation planning of the Three Gorges Power System. The 待测的日负荷曲线；另一种方法[3]是以一条已知负 practical results show that the presented method is fast, 荷曲线作为基准，预测未来负荷曲线，使二者误 effective and more accurate than traditional load forecasting methods. 差的平方和最小，即变成二次规划问题。 本文建议的方法属于后一类，但将持续或时 KEY WORDS: Middle and long-term load forecasting ；Dail