软件老化的多元时间序列分析方法.pdfVIP

ISSN 1673-9418 CODEN JKYTA8 E-mail: fcst@ Journal of Frontiers of Computer Science and Technology 1673-9418/2012/06(02)-0125-09 Tel: +86-10 DOI: 10.3778/j.issn.1673-9418.2012.02.004 软件老化的多元时间序列分析方法* + 郑鹏飞 , 齐 勇, 陈鹏飞 西安交通大学 电子与信息工程学院 计算机软件与理论研究所, 西安 710049 * Multivariate Time Series Analysis of Software Aging + ZHENG Pengfei , QI Yong, CHEN Pengfei Institute of Computer Software and Theory, School of Electronic and Information Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong Uni- versity, Xi’an 710049, China + Corresponding author: E-mail: p.f.zheng.phd@ ZHENG Pengfei, QI Yong, CHEN Pengfei. Multivariate time series analysis of software aging. Journal of Frontiers of Computer Science and Technology, 2012, 6(2): 125133. Abstract: Currently, models adopted to analyze software aging are either univariate models or multivariate models which do not incorporate mutual influence or correlation of the model parameters. To extend these models, this pa- per introduces a multivariate time series approach to analyze software aging based on Granger causality test and vector auto-regression (VAR) model. Firstly, through the experiment of the HelixServer-VOD system, Granger cau- sality test is used to verify that there exists mutual influence between performance parameters during software aging. Secondly, VAR model is constructed to depict and forecast software aging progress in multiple parameter dimen- sions. Then by comparing VAR model to prevailing software aging models in an empirical way, the results indicate that VAR model gets nearer to the nature of software aging than others. Key wor