分析报告：普华永道（PWC）：世界贸易前景——2030年全球海空货运航线前25强.pdf

www.econoomics.pwc.coom Futturee of wworrld trade Topp 25 ssea aand aair freigght rroutees inn 20330 Ecoonomic Viewws: Futture of worldd trade Maarch 2011 Economic views View from the top World trade has bounced back since the global economic downturn, but to what extent will this trend continue over the next 20 years? Will the rise of emerging economies fundamentally change the trade landscape? And what will be the most lucrative trade routes by 2030? In this report, economists at PwC use bespoke modelling techniques to project bilateral trade, requiring either sea or air freight, between 29 economies over the next two decades. The analysis focuses on countries that are either already displaying high levels of foreign trade or are expected to experience fast growth in trade over the next 20 years, in order to identify the top sea and air freight routes by 2030. Our key findings include: • China will overtake the US and dominate global trade in 2030, featuring in 17 of the top 25 bilateral sea and air freight trade routes. • In addition, we see four key areas that could potentially present significant opportunities for transport and logistics firms over the period: o Trade within the Asia-Pacific region; o Trade between emerging and developed economies, inspired by the symbiotic relationship between Germany and China; o Trade between emerging economies, such as between those in developing Asia and Latin America; and o Trade between China and Africa. • We also outline some of the challenges and opportunities for transport logistics companies including; o Executing cross border transactions o Recruiting and retaining the best talent and skills