浅析国外直接投资与实际汇率的内在联系(节选).pdfVIP

Foreign Direct Investment and Real Exchange Rate Interlink 浅析国外直接投资与实际汇率的内在联系 （节选） Abstract This paper examines theoretically and empirically the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and the real exchange rate. It is found that in large countries with freely floating currencies, such as the USA, the UK and Japan, causality runs from the real exchange rate to FDI. These re-sults are consistent with the predictions of Models of financial behavior. Causality runs both ways in small countries with fixed or “quasi’’ fixed currencies, such as the EU countries. These results are consistent with Models, which emphasize on trade integration. It is shown that a weaker euro will not have uniform effects on FDI inflows across the unified Europe. Key words: FDI, real exchange rate 摘 要 本文从理论和实 上考证研究了国外直接投资和实际汇率之间的关系。结果发现，对 于采取浮动汇率的大国（如美国、英国和日本）来说，二者之间的因果关系为实际汇率变 动会导致国外直接投资变动。这一结论与金融行为模型的预测是相一致的。而对于采取固 定汇率或“准”固定汇率的小国（如欧盟各国）来说，二者的因果关系是双向的。这一结果 与部分强调贸易一体化的模型也是相一致的。结果亦表明，疲软的欧元是无法对欧盟各国 的国外直接投资流量产生统一的影响的。 关键词：国外直接投资（FDI），实际汇率（RER） During the last decade inflows, as well as outflows, of foreign direct investment (FDI) have increased dramatically in Europe, the US and Japan. There is evidence that globalization and integration of the markets have taken place through FDI flows rather than through trade. Total world capital outflows in the 1980’sgrew at an annual average rate of almost 30%, more than three times the rate of world exports and four times as fast as gross domestic product.1 Implications of FDI movements for the real exchange rate and the opposite, therefore, provide important information for the forces driving the markets. Moreover, decisions about exchange rate policy should take into account the interlink between FDI and the real exchange