寒潮天气过程分析.pdfVIP

研究论文 第3 卷 第2 期 沙 漠 与 绿 洲 气 象 2009 年4 月 Desert and Oasis Meteorology 2006 年初春浙北寒潮天气过程分析 向 华，陈卫锋 （湖州市气象台，浙江 湖州313000） 摘 要：从其高空环流形势演变和850hPa 温度变化等方面，对2006 年3 月初春浙北的一 次寒潮天气过程进行分析。结果表明：这次寒潮爆发的明显特点是阻高的建立和消亡，对于冷空 气南下的突发性估计不足是本次预报失败的主要原因。在中高层反映不明显的情况下，特别要 注意中低层的冷空气和降水共同影响引起寒潮。另外经过订正后的数值预报低层的温度，是预 报寒潮的一个很好参照指标。 关键词：寒潮；横槽；切变线 中图分类号：P458 文献标识码：B 文章编号：1002-0799 （2009）02-0015-03 Analysis of a Cold Wave Weather Process in Early Spring of 2006 XIANG Hua, CHEN Wei-feng （Huzhou Meteorological Office, Huzhou 313000, China） Abstract: One cold wave weather process of North Zhejiang in early spring of 2006 was analyzed mainly from the aspects of upper air circulation situation and temperature changes of 850 hPa. The results indicate that the remarkable feature of this outbreak of cold wave is the establishment and extinction of blocking high. It is the main reason of failing in this forecast that underestimates the sudden happening of cold air moving southward. On the condition that upper and middle level is not obvious to cause cold wave, the joint influence of cold air in middle and low level and precipitation should be especially paid attention. In addition, the corrected temperature of numerical forecast in the low level is a very good reference index for forecasting cold wave. Key words: cold wave; transverse trough; shear line 寒潮是一种大规模的强冷空气向南爆发的过 温下降到5℃或以下，并伴有5 级以上偏北大风时，