联合国经济展望报告2012年.pdfVIP

PRE-RELEASE World Economic Situation and Prospects 2012 Global economic outlook United Nations New York, 2011 1 Chapter I Global economic outlook Prospects for the world economy in 2012-2013 Following two years of anaemic and uneven recovery from the global financial crisis, the The world economy is world economy is teetering on the brink of another major downturn. Output growth on the brink of another has already slowed considerably during 2011, especially in the developed countries. The recession baseline forecast foresees continued anaemic growth during 2012 and 2013. Such growth is far from sufficient to deal with the continued jobs crises in most developed economies and will drag down income growth in developing countries. Even this sombre outlook may be too optimistic. A serious, renewed global downturn is looming because of persistent weaknesses in the major developed economies related to problems left unresolved in the aftermath of the Great Recession of 2008-2009. The problems stalking the global economy are multiple and interconnected. The problems are multiple The most pressing challenges are the continued jobs crisis and the declining prospects for and interconnected economic growth, especially in the developed countries. As unemployment remains high, at nearly 9 per cent, and incomes stagnate, the recovery is stalling in the short run because of the lack of aggregate demand. But, as more and more workers remain out of a job for a long period, especially young workers, medium-term growth prospects also suffer because of the detrimental effect on workers’ skills and experience. The rapidly cooling economy is bo