楚雄州5月降水时空分布及其与热带太平洋海温的关系.docVIP

楚雄州5月降水时空分布及其与热带太平洋海温的关系* （1. 云南大学资源环境与地球科学学院大气科学系，昆明 650091；2. 云南省玉溪市气象局，玉溪652600；3. 云南省楚雄州气象局，楚雄 675000； *联系人，E-mail: lifan6567@126.com） 摘要：利用楚雄州10个测站1960～2007年5月降水量观测资料以及NCEP提供的同期逐月海温资料，分析了楚雄州5月降水的时空变化特征，并研究了其与热带太平洋海温的响应关系。结果发现：楚雄州的5月降水量存在明显的年际及年代际变化特征,并且各个站点的变化趋势十分一致。对楚雄州5月 Ni?a型。通过随机实验的方法，利用Ni?o3.4区海温异常指数，建立了楚雄州5月降水的预报方程，并进行了独立样本检验，其中独立样本检验的距平同号率也达到了72%。可见，热带太平洋Nino3.4区SSTA的变化对楚雄州5月降水预报具有一定预报意义。 关键词：楚雄州5月降水 时空分布 热带太平洋 ENSO The May precipitation temporal and spatial distribution of Chuxiong and its relationship with Tropical Pacific Ocean Li Liu((, Fan Li( (Department of Atmospheric Science, Yunnan University, Kunming, Yunnan Province, China. ( Yuxi Meteorological Bureau，Yunnan Province, Yuxi 652600； ( Chuxiong Meteorological Bureau，Yunnan Province, Chuxiong 675000； Abstract: Based on the Chuxiong, Yunnan province precipitation in May of 10 stations from 1960 to 2007 and NCEP SSTA data over the same period, the temporal- spatial distribution of Chuxiong precipitation in May and its response to Tropical Pacific Ocean are studied. The results show that Chuxiong precipitation in May has significant interannual and decadal variability and whole Chuxiong precipitation in May has the same variation. It could be seen from wavelet transform that Chuxiong precipitation in May has close relationships to ENSO signal, which have significant period from 3 to 7 year. The leading correlation coefficient between the Chuxiong May precipitation index and Tropical Pacific Ocean SSTA distribution presents a classic La Ni?a type. Subsequently, a statistical forecast mode for Chuxiong precipitation in May has been constructed by using SSTA of Nino3.4. The percentage of same sign is more than 70%, which indicate that the SSTA of Nino3.4 has the potential to forecast the Chuxiong precipitation in May. Keywords：The May precipitation in Chuxiong；the temporal and spatial distribution；Tropical Pacific Ocean；ENSO； 1 引言 云南地处低纬高原区域，地形复杂，同时受到东亚季风和印度季风的交互作用，而楚雄彝族自治州位于云南省中北部，辖1市9县。地处横