汇率和东亚贸易平衡：存在J曲线效应-外文翻译.docVIP

毕 业 设 计（论 文）外 文 参 考 资 料 及 译 文 译文题目：汇率和东亚贸易平衡：存在J曲线效应吗？ 　　　　　Exchange rate and trade balance in east Asia: is there a J?curve? 学生姓名： 张秋晨 学　　号： 0721110415 专　　业： 金融学 所在学院： 龙蟠学院 指导教师： 吴敏 职　　称： 讲师 年 月 日 说明： 要求学生结合毕业设计（论文）课题参阅一篇以上的外文资料，并翻译至少一万印刷符（或译出3千汉字）以上的译文。译文原则上要求打印（如手写，一律用400字方格稿纸书写），连同学校提供的统一封面及英文原文装订，于毕业设计（论文）工作开始后2周内完成，作为成绩考核的一部分。 Exchange rate and trade balance in east asia: is there a J?curve? OLUGBENGA ONAFOWORA SUSQUEHANNA UNIVERSITY Abstract This paper examines the short run and long run effects of real exchange rate changes on the real trade balance of three ASEAN countries in their bilateral trade to the US and Japan within a cointegrating vector error correction model (VECM). Generalized impulse response funtions are estimated to investigate the response to shocks. VECM estimates suggest one long?run steady?state cointegrating relationship among real trade balance, real exchange rate, real domestic and foreign income in each country. Although considerable variations exist in the results, overall the generalized impulse response functions suggest that the Marshall?Lerner condition holds in the long?run with varying degree of J?curve effects in the short?run. 1. Introduction Many empirical analyses, both multi-country panel regressions and econometric models applied to individual countries, have been conducted into how exchange rate changes affect the trade balance of developing and developed countries. Despite the plethora of theoretical and empirical research into how exchange rate changes affect trade balance, there is still considerable disagreement concerning the relationships between these economic variables and the effectiveness of currency devaluation as a tool for increasing a countrys balance of trade. Consequently, the effect of exchange rate changes on trade balance must be considered