基于信息动力学的水资源系统承载力演化模型.docVIP

 基于信息动力学的水资源系统承载力演化 模型# 王龙，柴立和** 5 10 15 20 25 30 （天津大学环境科学与工程学院，天津 300072） 摘要：水资源承载力是水资源系统的一个主要属性，对一个地区社会、经济发展有着重要的 影响，良好的水资源承载力有利于可持续发展。尽管当前已有很多对其属性进行评价的模 型，但由于水资源系统的非线性和复杂性，现有的方法仍存在不少问题。本文从以一个新 的视角，从广义信息实在的角度，通过对水资源系统的重新定义，并依据最大流原理推导 出水资源系统的信息动力学演化方程，建立起对水资源系统的评价、预测、调控的新模 型。利用该模型对山西省及其各地市水资源承载力进行评价、预测、调控，并做了对比验 证以及提出可行性措施，此法相对而言更加科学、简便，对一般的复杂系统的研究都具有 重要的实际意义。 关键词：水资源承载力；信息动力学；最大流原理；复杂系统 中图分类号：N949 TV1 The evolution model of water resources carrying capacity based on information dynamics WangLong, Chai Lihe (School of Environmental Science and Engineering School,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072) Abstract: Water resources carrying capacity is a main property of the water resources system, being influential on social and economic development in a region. Good water resources carrying capacity is beneficial to sustainable development. Though many evaluation models to their property have been carried out, some problems remain due to nonlinearity and complexity of water resources system. In this paper, from a new generalized information perspective, the water system is defined. Dynamical evolution equation of the water system is derived based on maximum flux principle, which establishes a new model on evaluation, prediction and regulation on water system. Assessment, forecasting and regulation on water resource carry capacity of Shanxi province and other regions are done by using the new model. Comparative validation and feasible measures are accordingly proposed. Compared to other models, this method is more scientific and simple, and has a strong practical significance to studies on general complex systems. Key words: water Resources Carrying Capacity; information dynamics; maximum flux principle; 35 40 complex system 0 引言 水资源承载力可以看成是承载力概念与水资源系统的结合，国外往往用“可持续利用水 [1] 体来看水资源承载力还没有一个权威的定义，而在国内的研究中一般认为水资源承载力是指 某一区域的水资源在某一具体历史发展阶段下以可预见的技术、经济和社会发展水平为依 据，以可持续发展为原则，以维护生态环境良性循环发展为条件，经过合理优化配置，对该 地区社会经济发展的最大支撑能力[4]。一个区域的水资源承载力对该区域的发展起着决定性 基金项目：国家自然科学基金（No. 作