大西洋飓风对商业活动的影响（英）-37页.pdf

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SumitAgarwal

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DevelopmentEconomics

DevelopmentResearchGroup

September2025

PolicyResearchWorkingPaper11217

Abstract

Thispaperquantifiestheshort-runeconomicimpactofacrossnearbyareasorlargeonlineplatformsislimited,indi-

21AtlantichurricanesonU.S.localbusinessactivityfromcatingwidespreadlocalconsumptiondeclines.Economic

2017to2024usinganonymizedMastercardtransactiondisruptionvariesmorebyindustrythanstormintensity,

dataaggregatedbyZIPcode.Onaverage,hurricaneswithindependentstoreshitharderthanchains.Localbusi-

reducemerchantsalesby12.4percentduringtheprepara-nesseswithlargeronlinepresencefacesmaller,shortersales

tion,impact,andrecoveryphases—anestimatedUS$1.38declines,showinggreaterresilience.

billioninlostrevenueperstorm.Substitutioninspending

ThispaperisaproductoftheDevelopmentResearchGroup,DevelopmentEconomics.Itispartofalargereffortbythe

WorldBanktoprovideopenaccessto