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InternationalFinance:
ManagingCapitalFlowsandFinancialRisks
JointCCER-WorldBankInstitutecourseJuly16-20,Beijing,China1
CapitalFlowVolatilityandFinancialRisks:
OverviewDr.YanWang,SeniorEconomistManagingCapitalFlowsandFinancialRisks,aCCER-WBIjointcourseJuly16-20,Beijing,China2
CapitalFlowVolatilityFinancialRisksI.RiseandFallofCapitalFlowsCapitalflowvolatilityImplicitgovernmentguaranteesmarketfailuresVolatilityhurtsgrowthandhurtsthepoormostII.NewissuesinmanagingrisksFiscalrisksandgov’tcontingentliabilitiesDerivativesandrisks“ValueatRisk”EarlywarningindicatorsShorttermflowsandcrisesIII.PolicyoptionstomanagefinancialrisksAspectrumofcapitalflowinterventionsChile:reserverequirementsforshortterminflows: prosandconsSoundbankingsystemandregulations:currency riskexposureandetc.Competitionandcorporategovernancecrucialfor marketdisciplineSummary3
GlobalIntegrationandCapitalFlowVolatility4
Theriseandfallofinternationalcapitalflows:
capitalmarketflowsarevolatileSource:GDF2000.5
CapitalFlowVolatility:FDIisMoreStableSource:GDF,19996
Largereversalsinnetprivatecapitalflows7
CapitalFlowVolatilityislinkedwithVolatileGrowthRelationshipbetweeneconomicgrowthvariabilityandvolatilityinprivateforeigncapitalflowsSource:Thomasetal“TheQualityofGrowth,”2000.8
1970-791980-841985-891990-9601020304050NumberofepisodesSystemiccrisesSmallercrisesCapitalFlowVolatilityislinkedwithFrequencyinSystemicBankingCrisesFrequentBankingCrisis9
BankingCrisesandaftermathareextremelycostlyfortherealeconomy:unfairburdenforthepoorHighCostofBankingCrises10
GrowthVolatilityhurtsthepoormostSource:Thomasetal“TheQualityofGrowth”,2000.11
FinancialDeepeningintheDomesticEconomycanfacilitateEconomicGrowth,however...Source:Thomasetal“TheQualityofGrowth,12000.12
CapitalAccountOpennessi
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