伍德里奇 计量经济学导论 第6版 英文 课件.pptx

TheNatureofEconometricsandEconomicData

Chapter1

●Whatiseconometrics?

·Econometrics=useofstatisticalmethodstoanalyzeeconomicdata

·Econometricianstypicallyanalyzenonexperimentaldata

●Typicalgoalsofeconometricanalysis

·Estimatingrelationshipsbetweeneconomicvariables

·Testingeconomictheoriesandhypotheses

·Forecastingeconomicvariables

·Evaluatingandimplementinggovernmentandbusinesspolicy

TheNatureofEconometrics

andEconomicData

andEconomicData

●Stepsineconometricanalysis

·1)Economicmodel(thisstepisoftenskipped)

·2)Econometricmodel

●Economicmodels

·Maybemicro-ormacromodels

·Oftenuseoptimizingbehaviour,equilibriummodeling,…

·Establishrelationshipsbetweeneconomicvariables

·Examples:demandequations,pricingequations,…

·Functionalformofrelationshipnotspecified

·Equationcouldhavebeenpostulatedwithouteconomicmodeling

●Economicmodelofcrime(Becker(1968))

·Derivesequationforcriminalactivitybasedonutilitymaximization

TheNatureofEconometric

Hoursspentin→y=f(T1,q2,T3,T4,Zs,To,T7)

criminalactivities

ProbabilityofProbabilityofconvictionifgettingcaughtcaught

Age

Expected

sentence

“Wage”ofcriminalactivities

Wageforlegalemployment

Other

income

andEconomicData

●Modelofjobtrainingandworkerproductivity

·Whatiseffectofadditionaltrainingonworkerproductivity?

·Formaleconomictheorynotreallyneededtoderiveequation:

·Otherfactorsmayberelevant,butthesearethemostimportant(?)

→wage=f(educ,erper,training)

Yearsofwork-forceexperience

Yearsofformaleducation

Weeksspent

injobtraining

Hourlywage-

TheNatureofEconometrics

andEconomicData

●Econometricmodelofcriminalactivity

·Thefunctionalformhastobespecified

·Variablesmay