汇率的波动，纺织品出口，影响分析.pdfVIP

摘 要 近年来,随着我国经济持续快速发展,人民币面临着空前的升值压力,这 必然会在一定程度上对纺织业的出口产生影响。在中国不断加快人民币 汇率改革的进程中，交织着世界经济不景气、局部地区政局不稳定等各 种因素。影响汇率变动的因素日趋复杂，且由于我国政府扩宽了人民币 汇率的波动区间，这使得汇率波动越来越剧烈而频繁。而浙江省是中国 纺织品的生产大省和出口大省，纺织产业在全省的工业生产和出口贸易 中占有举足轻重的地位。同时，浙江纺织产业在国内乃至国际上有着重 要的影响，表现出较强的竞争优势。全球纺织品配额的取消曾给浙江纺 织业注入短暂的活力，但随之而来的“特保”措施与人民币升值使浙江纺织 品出口处于双重压力之下。利用中国2002年~2016年人民币兑美元的汇率 、浙江纺织品出口额以及浙江省人均国民收入等相关的年度数据,运用Evi ews6.0软件建立单位根、协整检验及ECM模型,并对模型进行实证检验。 结果表明：汇率的波动与纺织业的出口的相互影响的，但是在短期内汇 率对纺织品的出口没有显著的影响。 关键词：汇率的波动，纺织品出口，影响分析 ABSTRACT In recent years, with the sustained and rapid development of Chinas economy, the RMB is facing unprecedented pressure to appreciate, which is bound to export dependence extile industry have an important impact on exports. In China, the process of accelerating the reform of the RMB exchange rate, intertwined with the world economic downturn, local political instability and other factors. The factors that affect the exchange rate change are becoming more and more complicated, and because of the widening of the fluctuation range of the RMB exchange rate, the exchange rate fluctuates more and more frequently. Zhejiang Province is Chinas textile production province and export province, the textile industry in the provinces industrial production and export trade occupies a pivotal position. At the same time, Zhejiang textile industry in the country and the international community has an important impact, showing a strong competitive advantage. The abolition of the global quota of textiles has injected a short-term vitality into the Zhejiang textile industry, but the ensuing special safeguard measures and the appreciation of the renminbi so that Zhejiang textile exports under double pressure. Based on the annual data of Chinas RMB exchange rate from RMB 2002to 2016, Zhejiang textile exports and per capita national income of Zhejiang Province, Eows6.0 software was used to es