新加坡国际事务研究所-从危机到地方病：步履蹒跚还是勇往直前？（英）.pdf

From Crisis to Endemic: Stumbling or Pressing Ahead? ASEAN Special Report October 2021 Table of Contents ABOUT THIS REPORT 3 Authorship 3 About the Singapore Institute of International Affairs 3 INTRODUCTION: LOOKING BEYOND THE SURGE 4 OVERVIEW AND KEY TRENDS 6 1. Sizing and Surviving the Surge 6 2. Moving to an Endemic Strategy 7 3. Expectations for Growth, Trade and Manufacturing 8 4. Tourism and Border Re-opening 8 5. Enabling the Digital Economy 9 6. Upgrading and Transformation Efforts 10 7. Political Stability 10 ASEAN WIDE EFFORTS 11 INDONESIA 12 COVID-19 Situation and Endemic Policies 12 Economic Outlook and Opportunities 12 Political Outlook 14 Key Considerations Looking Forward 15 VIETNAM 17 COVID-19 Situation and Endemic Policies 17 Economic Outlook and Opportunities 18 Political Outlook 19 Key Considerations Looking Forward 20 MALAYSIA 22 COVID-19 Situation and Endemic Policies 22 Economic Outlook and Opportunities 22 Political Outlook 24 Key Considerations Looking Forward 25 THAILAND 27 COVID-19 Situation and Endemic Policies 27 Economic Outlook and Opportunities 28 Political Outlook 29 Key Considerations Looking Forward 30 CONCLUSION 32 2 ABOUT THIS REPORT Authorship This Special Report is authored by Associate Professor Simon Tay, Chairman, Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA); Ms Lee Chen Chen, Associate Director and Senior Fellow; Ms Jessica Wa’u, Deputy Director (ASEAN); Ms Rohini Nambiar, Senior Research Analyst; and Ms Sarah Loh, Research Analyst, who coordinated and led on much of the research. About the Singapore Institute of International Affairs Insights ● Networks ● Access Established in 1962, the Singapore Institute