基于FUZZY－ISM的QD烟草公司物流风险分析.docxVIP

基于FUZZY－ISM的QD烟草公司物流风险分析 摘 要：中国是世界上最大的烟草生产国与消费国，与世界消费量居第二位的美国相比，中国烟草消费量是美国的3倍。随着现代信息技术与物流管理的不断融合，以及我国近年来不断的“走出去”、“引进来”，烟草行业物流更是取得空前巨大的发展，而其面临的严峻挑战与风险不言而喻。且由于烟草行业本身的特殊性，风险更是无处不在，风险的出现不仅导致烟草物流的效率降低，还会影响相关烟草公司甚至国家的经济效益。且我国对于烟草行业物流方面的研究仍处于前期缓慢发展阶段。因此，对烟草公司的物流风险的研究十分必要。对于物流风险研究不仅包括对物流风险因素的识别、分析，也包含对于风险应对及管控等。与此同时，各物流环节间各类风险因素之间关系的复杂多变，更是增大了风险量化的难度。为有效识别和规避烟草行业的物流风险，本文基于QD烟草公司的基本运作流程，结合大量数据，对入库、存储、分拣出库及配送环节中的各项风险因素进行了全面识别，并运用 FUZZY-ISM 结构模型对烟草公司的各类物流风险因素进行了风险识别及量化分析，以此分析研究风险因素间的内在联系和相互作用机理，并基于QD烟草公司的物流风险应对现状，给出针对性、可操作性的应对措施及监控意见。本文旨在为决策者在面临日益激烈的市场竞争，提高烟草企业竞争力和经济运转效率等方面提供建设性依据。亦致力于为今后同行业的风险管理者的风险研究及管控提供参考。 关键词：烟草物流；风险分析; FUZZY-ISM 结构模型 Logistics Risk Analysis of QD Tobacco Companies Based on FUZZY-ISM Abstract：The production and consumption of tobacco in China are ultimate, and its consumption is three times that of the United States, the worlds second-largest consumer. With the continuous integration of modern information technology and logistics management, as well as the going-global strategy the bringing-in strategy of our country in recent years, tobacco industry logistics has made unprecedented tremendous development. The severe challenges and risks it faces are self-evident. Due to the particularity of the tobacco industry, risks are ubiquitous. The emergence of risks not only reduces the efficiency of tobacco logistics, but also affects the economic benefits of relevant tobacco companies and even the country. And the research on logistics of tobacco industry in China is still in the early stage of slow development. Therefore, it is necessary to study the logistics risk of tobacco companies. The research on logistics risk not only includes the identification and analysis of logistics risk factors, but also includes risk response and control. At the same time, the relationship between various risk factors among logistics links is complex and changeable, which increases the difficulty of risk quantification. To effectively identify and avoid the risk of the logist