山东省马铃薯种植户仓储行为及经济收益分析.pdf

摘 要 我国马铃薯产量一直位居世界首位，这对保证我国居民粮食安全有重要作用。同 时，马铃薯的种植收益高于小麦、玉米、水稻三大粮食作物，种植马铃薯已成为我国 农户重要的收入来源。2015 年农业部提出我国将启动马铃薯主粮化战略，使马铃薯成 为继水稻、小麦、玉米之后的另一种主粮。马铃薯主粮化战略的实施，给马铃薯产业 带来了极大的机遇。山东省是我国的马铃薯种植大省，马铃薯收入在农户收入中占重 要地位。但农户在收获马铃薯后，一部分农户选择仓储，一部分农户不仓储，为探索 影响农户仓储行为的因素，以及农户仓储行为能否显著增加收益及增加程度。本文在 山东省五个马铃薯主产区展开问卷调查，获得 200 份有效问卷，通过对样本的描述分 析，了解山东省马铃薯种植户仓储的基本情况，然后基于Logit 模型对农户仓储马铃薯 行为的影响因素进行实证分析,基于ISM 模型分析影响农户仓储行为的深层因素，并基 于处理效应模型探究农户仓储行为能否显著影响其收益。结果表明收入来源、地形、 马铃薯产量、之前是否仓储、仓储技术了解、销售渠道、家庭成员态度均显著影响马 铃薯种植户仓储行为，其中农户主要收入来源、农户对仓储技术的了解、农户家庭成 员的态度是影响农户仓储行为最表层的因素，农户之前是否仓储、农户销售渠道、马 铃薯产量是影响马农户仓储行为的间接中层因素，地形是影响农户仓储行为最深层次 的因素。且农户的仓储行为可以显著增加其收入，与不仓储马铃薯的农户相比，仓储 马铃薯的农户每亩可增加12.2%的收入。最后提出相应对策：提高农户对仓储技术的了 解，加快农村仓储点建设，建立马铃薯仓储补贴机制，加强马铃薯信息体系建设。 关键词：农户仓储行为；影响因素；仓储经济收益。 I Abstract Chinas potato production has always ranked first in the world, which plays an important role in ensuring the food security of Chinese residents. At the same time, the planting income of potato is higher than that of wheat, corn and rice. Planting potato has become an important source of income for farmers in China. In 2015, the Ministry of agriculture proposed that China will launch the strategy of potato as the main grain, making potato another main grain after rice, wheat and corn. The implementation of the strategy of main grain of potato has brought great opportunities to potato industry. Shandong province is a big potato planting Province in China, and potato income plays an important role in farmers income. However, after harvesting potatoes, some farmers choose to store, some farmers do not store, in order to explore the factors that affect the storage behavior of farmers, and whether the storage behavior of farmers can significantly increase the income and increase the degree. In this paper, 200 valid questionnaires were collected from