某洗煤厂技改项目可行性研究_硕士学位论文.doc

辽宁工程技术大学硕士学位论文格式规范 ××大学硕士学位论文 - PAGE 20 - - PAGE II - 硕士学位论文 ×× ××集团永安洗煤厂 技改项目可行性研究 The feasibility study on The feasibility study on Technical improvement of ×× Provincial Coal Industry Group ×× coal washery 摘 要 激烈的市场竞争要求企业不断优化产品结构、提高企业竞争力，才能使企业获得较好的经济效益。××集团公司为了适应发展目标的要求，提出了该集团公司××洗煤厂技改项目的设计方案，进行该项目的可行性研究，对保证该集团做出正确投资决策具有重要意义。 本文在分析该项目方案的基础上，依据该项目实际资料，运用可行性研究的相关理论和方法，从动态指标和静态指标两个方面，对该项目进行了财务评价，结果表明该项目具有较好盈利能力和抗风险能力的结论。同时，在盈亏平衡分析和敏感性分析的基础上，运用蒙特卡洛法，针对影响项目评价指标的价格和成本两个主要敏感因素，分析了该项目净现值指标的概率分布，经计算分析，该项目净现值小于的概率为：24.53%，表明该项目会面临一定程度的风险。 关键词：项目；可行性研究；财务评价；蒙特卡洛法 - PAGE VI - Abstract With fierce market competition enterprises should continuously optimize its product structure and improve their competitiveness, so they can achieve better economic benefits. In order to meet its development goal, ×× Provincial Coal Industry Group presents the design plan for technical improvement of its ×× coal washery. The feasibility study is conducted for this project since the study is of great significance for the company to make correct investment decisions. In this thesis, based on analysis of design plan for this project and according to practical materials of this project the theory and method for feasibility study is applied to make financial evaluation for this project in static and dynamic index aspects. The study indicates that this project has better profit ability and risk-resistance capability. Meanwhile probability distribution of the NPV for this project has been analyzed with Monte Carlo method with regard to two sensitive factors-price and cost, among other factors, which influence project evaluation index. Through calculation and analysis, the probability in that the net present value of this project is less than 0 is 24.53%. It illustrates this project will be faced with certain extent of risk. Key Words：Project；Feasibility study；Financial evaluation； Monte Carlo method 目 录 TOC \o 1-3 \h \z \u 摘 要 h I Abstract h II 1 绪论 h 1 1.1 问题的提出 h 1 1