03不确定性、进化和经济理论(中英).docxVIP

.. UNCERTAINTY, EVOLUTION, AND ECONOMIC THEORY 不确定性、进化和经济理论 ARMEN A. ALCHIAN University of California at Los Angeles A modification of economic analysis to incorporate incomplete information and uncertain foresight as axioms is suggested here. 本文提出一种经过改进的经济分析方法，以将不完全信息和不确定预知作为不言自明的客观存在引入经济分析。This approach dispenses with “profit maximization”; and it does not rely on the predictable, individual behavior that is usually assumed, as a first approximation, in standard textbook treatments. 这一分析方法扬弃了“利润极大化”；同时放弃了个体行为的可推测性，而在一般的教科书中，个体行为的可推测性通常被假定为一个最基本的条件。Despite these changes, the analytical concepts usually associated with such behavior are retained because they are not dependent upon such motivation or foresight. 尽管作了上述两点修正，但进行这类行为分析时常用的那些概念仍旧保留下来，因为这些分析概念本身并不依赖于这种动机或预见。The suggested approach embodies the principles of biological evolution and natural selection by interpreting the economic system as an adoptive mechanism which chooses among exploratory actions generated by the adaptive pursuit of “success” or “profit.” 这里提出的这种分析方法吸收了生物进化和自然选择原理，把经济体系解释为一个甄别机制，这一机制具有甄选那些试图追逐“成功”或利润“的适应性行为的功能。The resulting analysis is applicable to actions usually regarded as aberrations from standard economic behavior as well as to behavior covered by the customary analysis. 用这一方法，不仅能对那些通常被视为异常的经济行为进行分析，而且亦适用于传统分析所包括的一切行为分析。This wider applicability and the removal of the unrealistic postulates of accurate anticipations and fixed states of kno wledge have provided motivation for the study. 这一分析方法剔除了“精确预期”和“固态知识”这两个不真实的假说，其更广泛的适用性为经济学研究提供了动力。 The exposition is ordered as follows: First, to clear the ground, a brief statement is given of a generally ignored aspect of “profit maximization,” that is, where foresight is uncertain, “profit maximization” is meaningless as a guide to specifiable action. 本文将进行的阐释如下：首先，需要明确的是，“利润最大化”有一个方面的简要阐述被普遍忽略了，即，当预见具有不确定性的时候，“利润最大化”作为某一具体行动的指导是没有什么意义的。The constructive development then begins with an introduction of the element of environmental adoption by