林业经济发展和气候之间的因果关系分析.docVIP

我国林业经济发展与气候之间的因果关系研究 向中华1 曾胜2 （1.西南交通大学经济管理学院 成都 610031） (2.重庆工商大学财政金融学院 重庆 400067） 摘要 我国林业经济在国民经济发展中有着重要的地位，森林与气候之间也有着密切的关系。利用格兰杰因果检验分析林业经济发展与气温、降水量、湿度与日照数等气候因素之间的因果关系，林业生产总值与降水量、气温、湿度之间具有单向因果关系，林业生产总值与日照数之间因果关系不明显。通过这种因果关系，可以捕捉到气候因素的变化趋势，当认识到这种变化趋势，就可以采取相应的措施。这将会对制定宏观经济发展规划与森林资源开发战略，具有一定的指导与实践意义。 关键词 林业经济;气候;因果关系;格兰杰因果检验 分类号 F062.9 Research of the HYPERLINK javascript:showjdsw(showjd_0,j_0) causality between Forestry Economy HYPERLINK dict_result.aspx?searchword=%e6%9e%97%e4%b8%9a%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%8f%91%e5%b1%95tjType=sentencestyle=t=forestry+economic+development Development and Climate of China Xiangzhonghua1 Zengsheng2 (1.School of Business Administration, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031 2.School of Finance and Fiscal Affairs, Chongqing Technology and BusinessU niversity, Chongqing 400067) Abstract Forestry economy of China has an important status in national economic development; forest and climate have close relationship as well. Through the Granger-Causality Test verify the HYPERLINK javascript:showjdsw(showjd_0,j_0) causality between forestry economic development and climate factors such as the temperature, precipitation, moisture and sunshine .There is a unidirectional causality from Forestry total output value to precipitation , temperature and moisture , however, HYPERLINK javascript:showjdsw(showjd_0,j_0) not obvious to sunshine. Through The causality,we catch the trends of climatic factors. When we realize this HYPERLINK app:ds:variation%20tendency \t _self variation tendency of temperature, precipitation, moisture and sunshine, we should take corresponding measures. It will have guidance and practical meaning for macro economic development planning and forest resources development strategy. Key words Forestry Economy;Climate;Causality; Granger-Causality Test 我国林业经济发展，近年来取得了较快的增长，从2000年以来，每年都以超过10%的增长速度，而其中有5个年份增长率超过了20%。林业经济总产值在我国GDP中所占的比重也有增加的趋势(见表1)。林业经济在我国的经济发展中起着越来越重要的作用，而碳汇交易又将是林业经济一个新的经济增长点。因此，对林业经济的研究有着十分