topmodel与新安江模型参数不确定性分析及其应用水力学及河流动力学专业论文.docxVIP

rnl rnl 1 he parameter UnCertamty analysis and applicabon Of TOPMODEL and Xin’anjiang model The flood disasters occmed frequently in Diaojiang watershed,and flood disasters have caused serious loss．In order tO alleviate the adverse situation,this paper building schemes of flood forecasting based on TOPMODEL and Xin’anjiang model,ArcGIS and AGREE algorithm are used tO repair the DEM and tO extract some digital watershed information such as flow direction,slope,rivers，topography index,isochrones，etc．Using Visual studio 2010 tO program the TOPMODEL and Xin’anjiang model by例．TOPMODEL and Xin’砌iang model Was applied tO provides scientific basis and technical support aimed at making the flood control and decision correctly in Diaojiang watershed． The general likelihood uncertainty estimation method is used to analysis the main parameters sensitivity of TOPMODEL,sensitivity and regional sensitive parameters of Xin’anjiang model．The applicable scope of main parameters of TOPMODEL will be gained by analysis the general flood,larger flood,great nood and extraordinary nood based on deterministic coefficient,the error ofthe peaS,flow and peak time． 8 floods舶m 2008-20 1 3 were selected as the floods of calibration period,and 6 floods from 2014～2015 were selected as the floods of validation period,usmg rainfall and evaporation data tO simulate rainfall—runoff process of Diaojiang watershed based on substream．The results of TOPMODEL showed：the percent of pass is 87．5％and the average deterministic coefficient is 0．83 in calibration penod’the percent of pass is 83．3％and the average deterministic coefficient is O．86 in validation period。The results of Xin’a玛iang model showed：the percent ofpass is 62．5％and the average deterministic coefficient is 0．7 in calibration period,the percent of pass is 66．7％and the average deterministic coefficient is 0．77 in validation period．The simulation results of TOPMODEL have reached the precision level of Serie B in hydrological forecast．The simulat