几个经典概率故的解读.docVIP

PAGE PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT 1 PAGE PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT 1 PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT 1 PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT I 摘要 伴随着社会科学的迅猛发展，数学在生活中的应用越来越广泛，在我们的身边可以说是“无所不在”的；作为数学的一个重要部分——概率论，同样也具备着十分重要的作用.概率论是数学的一个重要分支，是专门研究讨论和揭示自然界中随机发生的现象及规律的数学学科,在实际生活有广泛的应用,把条件概率的知识运用到生活中，提出并解决问题. 关键词： 条件概率；贝叶斯公式；诚信；坚持不懈 PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT IV PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT III PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT III PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT II Abstract With the rapid development of social sciences ,mathematics has widely used in our daily life ,can to say no wherever ,whatever as an important part of mathematics, probability theory，and also play a very important role .Probability theory as an important branch of mathematics, it is a specialized research and reveal the random phenomenon and its regularity in mathematics discipline, has widely application in real life, can only be better reasonable use conditional probability knowledge to practice. Using probability knowledge to explain the case in real life. Keywords： Conditional Probability；Bayes formula；integrity；persistence 目录 TOC \o 1-3 \h \z \u HYPERLINK \l _Toc357066171 摘要 PAGEREF _Toc357066171 \h I HYPERLINK \l _Toc357066172 Abstract PAGEREF _Toc357066172 \h II HYPERLINK \l _Toc357066173 目录 PAGEREF _Toc357066173 \h III HYPERLINK \l _Toc357066174 1.引言 PAGEREF _Toc357066174 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc357066175 2.《范进中举》故事及其概率解读 PAGEREF _Toc357066175 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc357066176 2.1 《范进中举》的故事概述 PAGEREF _Toc357066176 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc357066177 2.2概率乘法公式解读《范进中举》 PAGEREF _Toc357066177 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc357066178 2.2.1条件概率 PAGEREF _Toc357066178 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc357066179 2.2.2 概率乘法公式 PAGEREF _Toc357066179 \h 1 HYPERLINK \l _Toc357066180 2.2.3 用概率乘法公式解读《范进中举》 PAGEREF _Toc357066180 \h 2 HYPERLINK \l _Toc357066181 2.3 用概率思想解释水滴石穿 PAGEREF _Toc357066181 \h 2 HYPERLINK \l _Toc357066182 2.4用概率思想解释的现实问题 PAGEREF _Toc357066182 \h 3 HYPERLINK