股利政策和企业价值——基于生命周期视角-会计学专业论文.docxVIP

I I 摘 要 股利政策的生命周期理论是近年来兴起的，本文试图从这一角度出发，解释 股利政策与企业价值之间的关系。 在本文中，为了剔除不同行业所处周期的影响，首先选择了沪深两市的制造 行业 A 股，样本的期间是 2010 至 2012 年。对样本进行分析时，首先确定样本公 司的生命周期，这一过程运用了修正的现金流量组合法；随后对划分后的样本公 司进行描述性统计，展示我国制造业各个生命周期股利政策的特点；其次在不同 的生命周期下，使用多元线性回归模型分别研究股利支付意愿以及现金股利支付 水平对企业价值的影响。实证研究表明，处于成长期的制造企业，股利支付意愿、 现金股利支付水平都与企业价值显著负相关；处于成熟期的制造企业，股利支付 意愿、现金股利支付水平也与企业价值显著负相关；处于衰退期的制造业企业， 股利支付意愿与企业价值负相关，而现金股利支付水平与企业价值显著正相关。 以上结果表明对于我国制造业企业而言，在不同的生命周期下，股利政策对企业 价值的影响不同。 最后，本文从我国制造行业这一行业现状出发，分析了出现上述实证结果的 原因，同时也解释了由于行业自有特点，偿债能力、企业规模以及盈利能力对制 造业企业价值特有影响。 关键词：生命周期，股利支付意愿，现金股利支付水平，企业价值 II II Abstract Recently, there is a new branch of dividend policy, which tries to study the relationship between dividend policy and the value of based on life cycle perspective. From my point of view, the enterprise life-cycle factors should be taken into account, when making the dividend policy decisions, so we can explain the relationship between dividend policy and maximization of enterprises’ value better. So based on the life cycle theory, I try to explain the relationship between them. Based on manufacturing industry, this paper selects SZE and SZSE A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2012 as samples. Firstly use the modified cash flow combination method to determine these samples’ life cycle. Then using the divided sample companies do descriptive statistics, showing the characteristics of each life cycle in Chinas manufacturing industry; Secondly, use multiple linear regression models in the three stages to study the impact of willingness to pay dividends and payout level to enterprise value. Empirical study shows that in the growing years of manufacturing enterprises, willingness to pay dividends and the dividend paid per share in cash are negatively correlated with the enterprise value; in mature years of manufacturing enterprises, willingness to pay dividends and the dividend paid per share in cash are also negatively correlated with the enterprise value; in recession years of manufacturing enterprises, willingness t