特征价格法编制我国新建住宅价格指数的应用研究-中国金融论坛.PDF

中国人民银行工作论文 No.2014/9 PBC Working Paper No.2014/9 2014 年12 月4 日 December 4,2014 特征价格法编制我国新建住宅价格指数的应用研究 王毅 翟春1 摘要：为了更加准确地反映我国房价变动程度和趋势，我们对国际上各种房价指数编制方法 进行了研究，并选用特征价格法试编了我国部分城市的新建住宅价格指数（MHPI）。与最传 统的、以非同质法编制的房价指数相比，以特征价格法编制的房价指数可以减少由于住宅特 征（如品质、地理位置等因素）变化导致的对价格指数的扭曲，从而更加准确地反映房价变 化趋势。与重复交易法相比，特征价格法可以避免二手房交易基础价格失真等问题。本课题 利用调查城市建委或房管局登记备案管理系统的数据信息构建模型，用“特征价格法”编制 了北京、天津、沈阳、上海等22 个城市各自的新建住宅价格指数（MHPI）及综合MHPI。这 些指数是以月为频度、以2007 年1 月为基期生成的2007 年-2010 年的定基指数序列。分析 显示，以特征价格法编制的房价指数与居民的实际感受更为接近，与宏观经济指标的相关性 也较高。 Abstract: In order to improve the measurement of property price inflation, we studied various methods of compiling housing price indices in the world, and constructed the Megacity Housing Price Index (MHPI) for selected Chinese cities employing the hedonic method. Compared with the traditional housing price indices based on non-homogeneous methods, housing price indices using the hedonic method can reduce distortions due to changes in property features such as quality and location, and thereby more accurately reflect the trend of housing prices. Compared with the repeat sale method, the hedonic method can avoid problems such as distortions to transaction prices in the secondary market. In this research project, we compiled the monthly housing price indices (from January 2007 to December 2010) using the hedonic method for new residential properties for 22 major cities, and developed a composite MHPI for these cities. Our analysis shows that the price trend depicted by the MHPI better reflects the actual experience of the residents than other indices, and is better correlated with selected macroeconomic indicators. 关键词：房价指数；特征价格法 声明：中国人民银行工作论文发表人民银行系统工作人员的研究成果，以利于开展学术交 流与研讨。论文内容仅代表作者个人学术观点，不代表人民银行。如需引用，请注明来源 为《