Prediction in Context On the Comparative Epistemic Merit of 预测境对认知价值比较.pptVIP

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2018-06-19 发布于福建
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Prediction in Context On the Comparative Epistemic Merit of 预测境对认知价值比较.ppt

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Prediction in Context On the Comparative Epistemic Merit of 预测境对认知价值比较

Prediction in Context: On the Comparative Epistemic Merit of Predictive Success Martin Carrier (Bielefeld University) 1. Predictive Novelty vs. Coherence as Epistemic Merits Prediction stands out among the traditional criteria of epistemic merit in science. Heather Douglas (2009) demanded to supplement the emphasis on explanation with an equal emphasis on prediction. Her claim is that ceteris paribus prediction is epistemically superior to accommodation. The epistemic role of predictions is to provide demanding test instances for theories; predictions serve to test explanations. Novel predictions anticipate surprising phenomena that go beyond the system of knowledge and tend to be inconsistent with it. Thus predictive power and coherence with the background knowledge are conditions that tend to point in opposite directions. However: conflict between the requirement that a theory produce novel predictions and the demand that it match the state of knowledge. The existence of competing standards suggests that the emphasis on prediction shouldn’t be exaggerated. What is the merit of predictions if science leaves the controlled conditions of the lab and struggles with the intricacy of the world? 2. Prediction in Application-Oriented Research Endeavors In application-oriented research, prediction is assumed to play a key role. Targeted inter-vention in natural processes requires the ability to antici-pate the results of one’s action. = Ambivalent views on the proper role of prediction in science: It is complained, on the one hand, that explanation has eclipsed prediction, whereas it is contended, on the other, that prediction has eclipsed explanation. = Question as to the relationship of predictive strength to explanatory power. Biotechnology of the 1990s: the ability to anticipate the outcome of one’s inter-ventions is decoupled from any deeper understanding. Predictive strength and theoretical under-standing are assessed as contrasting virtues.