Does Exports Instability Depress Economic Growth做出口的不稳定性抑经济增长.docVIP

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Does Exports Instability Depress Economic Growth做出口的不稳定性抑经济增长.doc

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Does Exports Instability Depress Economic Growth做出口的不稳定性抑经济增长

DOES EXPORTS INSTABILITY DEPRESS ECONOMIC GROWTH? EVIDENCE FROM ERROR-CORRECTION MODELS Krishan K Kaushik Kurt K Klein Department of Economics, University of Lethbridge, Lethbridge AB T1K3M4 Email: krishan.kaushik@uleth.ca ABSTRACT This paper examines the impact of exports, export instability, imports and terms of trade on economic growth in the context of a multivariate error-correction model. The empirical results show that export instability adversely affects the short-run stability and positively longer-run growth of income and the long-run estimates are statistically significant. In the long-run, the error correction term, δ, for the real GDP equation is -0.27. This indicates fairly rapid adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium level in the current period, with full adjustment taking as much as four years. The negative sign shows that the direction of correction is toward equilibrium. Surprisingly negative impact of export instability on economic growth reported in several previous studies could be due to insufficient attention to the stochastic properties of the relevant time series. Our study indicates that correctly specified economic models should be able to generate positive contemporaneous export instability and income growth relations at longer period. DOES EXPORTS INSTABILITY DEPRESS ECONOMIC GROWTH? EVIDENCE FROM ERROR-CORRECTION MODELS Introduction Export instability and its impact on the domestic economies of developing countries has been of continuing interest both in theoretical and empirical literature since the seminal works by Coppock (1962) and MacBean (1966)1. A number of empirical studies have been conducted to investigate the nature and extent of the impact of export instability on income growth employing a wide range of analytical frameworks ranging from rank correlation to causality analysis with conflicting conclusions. However, studies dealing with the impact of export instability on economic growth have yielded two fairly dis