Hierarchical Modeling and the Economics of Risk in IPM分层建模和风险控制经济学.pptVIP

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Hierarchical Modeling and the Economics of Risk in IPM分层建模和风险控制经济学.ppt

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Hierarchical Modeling and the Economics of Risk in IPM分层建模和风险控制经济学

Hierarchical Modeling and the Economics of Risk in IPM Paul D. Mitchell Agricultural and Applied Economics University of Wisconsin-Madison Entomology Colloquium March 28, 2008 Goal Today Explain hierarchical modeling for economic analysis of pest-crop systems and IPM Overview how economists represent and compare risky systems and identify the preferred system Hierarchical Modeling Purpose: To model the natural variability of the insect-crop system analyzing it Insect-crop system is highly variable Pest population density, crop injury/damage for given pest density, crop loss for given injury/damage, control for given pest density Missing a key component of system if economic analysis ignores this variability Hierarchical Modeling Treat variables as random and use linked conditional probability distributions pdf of a variable has parameters that depend (are conditional) on variables from another pdf, which has parameters that are conditional on variables from another pdf, … … … Final result: pdf for economic value that has much/most of the system’s natural variability Key is having right the data to estimate the conditional probability distributions Stylized Example Corn Rootworm in Corn Pest Density: Adult beetles/trap/day Unconditional beta distribution Eileen Cullen’s data from the Soybean Trapping Network in southern WI, 2003-2007 Pest Density: Adult beetles/trap/day Crop Damage: Node Injury Scale Oleson et al. 2005. JEE 98(1):1-8 Quantifies feeding damage on corn roots by corn rootworm larvae /pest/rootworm/nodeinjury/nodeinjury.html Crop Damage: Node Injury Scale Untreated NIS (NIS0) conditional on previous summer’s BTD Eileen Cullen’s data from the Soybean Trapping Network (2003-2007) Conditional beta pdf estimated Min 0 and max 3 set, then MLE conditional mean = A0 + A1BTD and constant st dev A0 = base level of damage even if observe BTD = 0 Untreated NIS Conditional on BTD Untreated NIS Conditional on BTD Untreated NIS: Estimation Results Untreated NIS