高盛 2010年5月亚太投资组合策略.pdfVIP

May 10, 2010 Asia Pacific: Portfolio Strategy Spring reset Fundamentals remain positive Another corrective phase Asia is down 11% from recent highs on Euro contagion concerns and China policy tightening. Foreign positioning is an added near term overhang. Manageable macro risks Our European colleagues view the risk of fundamental spillovers from Greece to other Euro-zone countries as low. We also find little correlation between a weak EUR and the performance of Asian sectors with higher EUR revenue exposure. In our view, China is on the path of further policy tightening, but the risk of a “hard landing” is low and the tightening cycle is well underway. We believe markets will likely begin to anticipate the end of the cycle in the coming months. Strong profits, attractive valuations: compelling strategic case Consensus earnings have risen to our top-down +30% forecast for 2010E and 1Q results have been good overall. We think equities can gain despite slower revision momentum. The region is trading at 11.9X 12m forward I/B/E/S consensus earnings, 1.9X book value, and the equity risk premium is over 1sd above average. Strong earnings growth and low valuations argue for higher market levels, once macro concerns stabilize. Our MXAPJ index target remains at 530. Asian regional markets are now trading 1sd below average (X) 12M forward PE Avg +1SD -1SD 23 21 19 17 15 13 11 11.9X Asian financial crisis; 911 attack and tech China hard- 9 11.0X bubble; 10.9X SARS; 10.4X landing scare; Global credit 10.6X crisis; 8.9X 7 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 9 9 9 9 0 0 0